Opposition Campaign Hits Brick Wall

As Kyrgyzstan’s opposition movement continues a rally pressing for the resignations of the president and prime minister, the authorities appear to be growing more confident in handling the crisis.



The Movement for Reforms began its open-ended protest on November 2 on Bishkek’s main square. The principal demand is that President Kurmanbek Bakiev and Prime Minister Felix Kulov step down.



A last-minute meeting on October 31 between Bakiev and his opponents resulted in two concessions, with the president pledging to drop his opposition to a proposed reform of the state broadcaster and to submit a draft constitution to the Kyrgyz legislature reflecting the opposition’s preference for a parliamentary rather than presidential system.



Bakiev was supposed to have produced the document on November 2, but that morning he announced that some members of parliament were against any hasty decisions on a constitutional reform that has taken a year and a half so far. Instead, he said he would submit the draft on November 6.



The rally thus opened with a wave of anger among opposition leaders who felt the president had reneged on a deal. Estimates of the turnout vary from 8,000, according to the interior ministry, to 20,000, the number cited by journalists. Organisers insist there were 50,000 at the rally.



After opposition leaders finished giving speeches, demonstrators set up an encampment on the square, near Government House. Some protesters from outside the capital spent the night there.



The protest resumed on the morning of November 3, when participants marched towards the city mayor’s office calling for the resignation of mayor Bolotbek Nogoev. Later on, they blockaded the state broadcasting building, where after an initial confrontation their leaders were given airtime to address the nation.



Political analysts are saying that the rally has so far fallen rather flat. They think it possible that the authorities will use force to break up the protest.



Valentin Bogatyrev, deputy head of the Vostok think tank, believes that day one of the protest showed that Bakiev has more supporters than the opposition thought. “It’s partly because he is so confident that most of the population supports him that he hasn't made concessions or met their demands,” he said.



Bogatyrev says parliament is divided between Bakiev allies and opponents, but the latter may find that their constituents favour the president.



He believes the rally may simply peter out. The use of force to end it would, he think, be the least desirable outcome, and could prolong the confrontation.



The authorities are now showing they are more in control than it first seemed.



On the morning of November 3, Prime Minister Kulov told parliament that he had obtained a computer disk which had been decrypted to show opposition plans to seize important buildings including the state broadcaster, the mayor’s office, the National Security Service, the prosecutor’s office, the Ministry of Interior and a number of urban centres. The audio recordings were later carried by local media.



Edil Baisalov, one of the leaders of the Movement for Reforms, confirmed that such a discussion had taken place but said his colleagues should be judged by their deeds rather than words.



Later on the same day, it was reported that opposition supporters had begun protests outside local government offices in several districts of the Chuy region, adjacent to Bishkek.



Discussing the latest developments, including the government’s disclosure of opposition plans, Toktogul Kakchekeev, press secretary of Kyrgyzstan’s chief prosecutor, told NBCentralAsia that the rally had been sanctioned by the authorities and no legal action against the opposition was envisaged for the moment. “If no harm has been done to persons or property, it is impossible to launch criminal proceedings,” he said.



Independent political scientist Turat Akimov does not believe regime change is imminent. “And if steps in that direction happen,” he added, “the authorities will have the right to use force or to neutralise the [opposition] leaders.



"If the authorities are aware of all the opposition’s plans, they must either take measures in the next 24 hours or else begin talks.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)