North-South Peace Threatened

Recent fighting in the contested oil-rich Abyei region that has left dozens dead and many more wounded is threatening to reopen a second front in Sudan.



The resumption of fighting between north and south - after three years of uneasy calm - would further disrupt efforts by United Nations peacekeepers to end violence in the Darfur region and could postpone next year’s national elections which are already in doubt because of the continued bloodshed in western Sudan.



Sudan already faces strong international criticism for renewed violence in Darfur and continued delays in the deployment of the full joint UN and African Union peacekeeping force in Darfur.



Likewise, Sudan has refused to cooperate with prosecutors from the International Criminal Court, ICC, which last year indicted two Sudanese in connection with the war in Darfur. Neither has been arrested because Sudan said it is not a party to the Rome Statute which created the court.



Fighting in the north-south border region of Abyei stopped following the signing of the January 2005 Comprehensive Peace Agreement, which ended 21 years of war that claimed the lives of an estimated two million people and displaced some four million.



The relative quiet has facilitated the exploitation of oil reserves in the region, but drilling activity has come under attack by Darfur rebels who say the Sudan government uses petroleum revenues to fund its war in Darfur.



The fresh fighting in the Abyei region in the south central part of the country, however, was the result of clashes between the Sudan People's Liberation Army, SPLA, and nomadic Misseriya tribesmen.



Both sides have accused the other of provoking the attacks, with the SPLA claiming that the Sudan government has armed the Misseriya tribesmen who traditionally graze their cattle in the region for several months each year.



The Abyei region has been occupied for more than a century by the southern Ngok Dinka tribes, and in recent years has been under the control of the Sudanese People’s Liberation Movement, SPLM, headed by President Salva Kiir, which governs the semi-autonomous South Sudan.



But tension between the north and south renewed months ago as each side continued a vicious tug-of-war over rights to the Abyei region.



As part of the 2005 CPA, the issue was to be resolved by the independent Abyei Border Commission.



But Sudan president Omar al-Bashir last year rejected the panel’s decision that Abyei belonged to the South, and instead claimed it was part of the north based on documents from 1905.



Hereeka Izz El-Deen Hareeka, the leader of the Misseriya, blamed the the escalation on the SPLA which has intervened on behalf of the Dinka Ngok tribe.



Recently, the Misseriya leaders named Mohamed Omar al-Ansari as their appointed governor for Abyei. Al-Ansari immediately ordered South Sudanese to vacate offices to make room for the Abyei Liberation Front, which he says has five battalions of up to 3,000 armed fighters each.



He also urged women and children to be evacuated from Abyei.



Meanwhile, Luka Biong Deng, the South Sudan minister of presidential affairs, said that the SPLA has no intention of leaving Abyei.



President Kiir has said this recent round of fighting was an attempt by the al-Bahsir government to negate the CPA.



He said Misseriya fighters have been armed by the Sudan government with heavy weapons and artillery and similar attacks in December and January included soldiers with Sudanese army IDs.



Some speculate that the upsurge in fighting may be a ploy by the Sudan government to call off next month’s national census, a necessary step leading to the national elections set for 2009.



If national elections are put back, people in South Sudan fear this will affect the timing of the 2011 referendum in which the South Sudanese will decide whether to remain part of Sudan or seek independence. South Sudan is already semi-autonomous.



With the status of Abyei unresolved, the validity of the referendum vote, which could include Abyei, might be challenged.



These fears appear to be well founded.



This past weekend, officials with Sudan’s ruling National Congress Party said next month’s census could not take place in Darfur because of the continued fighting there.



Former Darfur rebel leader Minni Minawi, who is now with the government, said that a national census or an election would be incomplete without Darfur. But with so many Sudanese refugees in neighboring Chad, neither a census nor an election would be appropriate.



Officials in South Sudan, however, argue that fighting in Darfur should not prevent the rest of the country from being counted or from voting.



Hamid Taban is an IWPR contributor and Peter Eichstaedt is IWPR’s Africa Editor.