Montenegro Plans Independence Vote

In a move aimed at indefinitely postponing direct elections to the Serbia-Montenegrin parliament, Montenegro's pro-independence leadership has unveiled a plan to call a referendum on separation from Serbia.

Throughout March and April, the Montenegrin leadership has hinted that a referendum on leaving the state union between the two countries, SCG, should take place in March 2005.

According to Podgorica analysts, Montenegro aims to use the threat of an independence vote to force the indefinite postponement of Serbia-Montenegro's first direct parliamentary elections in January 2005, which they stand to lose.

Voters supporting the ruling coalition in Montenegro are thought unlikely to take part in these elections, as they back an independent state. Their abstention, however, would open the door for Montenegro's pro-Serbian opposition to gain a major foothold in the state union parliament and put the breaks on any future independence moves.

Montenegro joined the state union after signing a deal known as the Belgrade agreement in March 2002 under direct pressure from the EU and its high representative for foreign policy and security, Javier Solana.

Under the deal, the pro-independence coalition, comprising Prime Minister Milo Djukanovic's Democratic Party of Socialists, DPS, and its junior coalition partner the Social Democrat Party, SDP, led by Ranko Krivokapic, had to abandon calls for a referendum on independence for a period of three years. The moratorium expires in March 2005.

The Belgrade agreement transformed the former federal structure linking Serbia and Montenegro into a loose union, granting both member states wide political and fiscal autonomy.

Until now, no direct elections to the state union parliament have occurred. Instead, the two governments have appointed delegates. However, the country's constitutional charter, adopted in 2003, prescribes that after two years direct elections to the assembly must take place.

A source close to the DPS said an incentive for calling the independence poll was the approach in January 2005 of direct parliamentary elections to the state union parliament.

If these elections take place, opposition forces favouring closer links to Serbia could be elected to the Serbia-Montenegro parliament and in harness with the ruling coalition in Serbia deal a serious blow to the Montenegrin independence project.

Nebojsa Medojevic, director of the think-tank, Group for Changes, said the entry of pro-Serbian opposition representatives into the Serbia-Montenegrin parliament would be seen as a "signal that the political mood had changed in favour of the state union", boosting the political forces opposed to Montenegro's independence.

Medojevic told IWPR that direct elections would seriously complicate matters for Djukanovic's coalition, which has staked its future on bringing the Montenegrin independence project closer to completion.

If the referendum on independence does not take place until next March, Medojevic told IWPR, the SDP might withdraw from the goverment and so cause it to fall.

He added public opinion polls revealed that the gap between pro-independence forces and supporters of union with Serbia was steadily falling.

"If Montenegro's opposition wins at the SCG parliamentary elections, the scales could be tipped towards staying in the union with Serbia, calling into the question Montenegro's government," he said.

Surveys taken by the Damar polling agency in April 2001 and September 2003 back up claims that support for independence in Montenegro is declining steadily.

The agency reported in 2001 that 49.3 per cent of Montenegrin citizens then favoured independence while 39.5 per cent were opposed.

But in September 2003, a survey said support for separation had dropped sharply to 40.6 per cent while opposition had fallen only slightly to 37.4 per cent.

Krivopakic, who is also the speaker of Montenegro's parliament, earlier this month insisted that a referendum on independence must go ahead next year as planned.

"Pro-independence forces will rally round vital state interests," he said. "It is up to us to deliver our promises to citizens. This will be an important historical test for us."

A senior DPS official, meanwhile, who preferred to remain anonymous, explained why the government had no desire to see direct elections to the state union parliament take place.

"A direct ballot in which citizens elect deputies to the state union parliament would certainly not play into our hands because a half of our independence-minded voters would abstain," he said.

"We are insisting now on the referendum, which is why we are reluctant to make any preparations for federal elections. It would effectively mean that they [the elections] would have to be postponed."

Miodrag Vukovic, a senior DPS official, told IWPR that most party members believed it made sense to hold a referendum on independence before direct elections take place.

"If the referendum shows the state union has no prospects, there could be no elections for the state union parliament," Vukovic said.

However, according to Medojevic, requests for a postponement are likely to fall on deaf ears, as neither the Serbian government nor the international community will support any delay.

Serbia's governing Democratic Party of Serbia, DSS, and pro-Serbian opposition parties in Montenegro have acted fast to condemn what they see as a Montenegrin ploy.

Dragan Soc, leader of the Montenegrin opposition People's Party, said Podgorica's only aim was to avoid direct elections "at any cost".

"This is why the story about the referendum has come to the fore now," he added. "The SDP and DPS know they have no political platform they can use to encourage pro-independence supporters to go these polls."

Soc maintained that a postponement of direct elections to the state union assembly was improbable because of the known opposition to any such outcome from Serbia's prime minister, Vojislav Kostunica.

However, leaders of Montenegro's ruling parties are also standing firm. They insist they cannot abandon the independence project, as separation remains the core issue for most of their voters.

"If we fail to call a referendum on independence next year, I see no point in staying in power," said Rifat Rastorder, vice-president of the SDP.

Nedjeljko Rudovic is a journalist with the Podgorica daily Vijesti.