Moldova’s Historic Vote

Welcome to IWPR’s Frontline Update, your go-to source to hear from journalists and local voices at the front lines of conflict.

 THE BIG PICTURE  

Defying gloomy predictions, Moldova chose a pro-European trajectory in key elections this week when voters threw their support behind the pro-Western ruling party and rejected the Moscow-leaning alliance.

The ruling Action and Solidarity party (PAS), led by Maia Sandu, maintained their parliamentary majority despite an overwhelming barrage of malign interference operations.

 VOICES FROM THE FRONTLINE 

“Observers recorded extensive disinformation campaigns, including deepfakes, supposed act-checking portals aligned with pro-Kremlin messaging and systematic narratives portraying the government as illegitimate,” IWPR’s Moldovan media expert Tatiana Puiu wrote in a special report this week. “Cyberattacks against government infrastructure were reported in the days before the vote, with thousands of attempted intrusions neutralised by authorities. Bomb threats and hoaxes targeted polling stations in Europe.”

However, she continued, the existential framing of the election as a contest for Moldova’s sovereignty and European future influenced behaviour.

“Many voters, even those frustrated with governance, felt they had to choose between Europe and Russia,” she continued, noting a shift in voting patterns among those traditionally less supportive of pro-European parties. In the break-away region of Transnistria, for instance, nearly 30 per cent voted for PAS.

Mariana Aricova of IWPR’s Independent Countering Disinformation Centre (ICDC), also wrote this week that voters “seemed to recognise the stakes for the country’s future and the need to act collectively”.  

“Rather than splitting their support across multiple pro-Russian or opposition parties, a significant portion of the electorate rallied around the ruling PAS, reinforcing its parliamentary majority,” she continued. “This reflects a growing awareness among citizens that unity and coordinated engagement at the ballot box are crucial for safeguarding democratic progress and the country’s European trajectory.”

 WHY IT MATTERS 

The win is a huge setback for pro‑Russian influence in a country right on Europe’s eastern periphery, especially amid the ongoing war in Ukraine. With a working majority, the government can more confidently push forward with the judicial, anti‑corruption and institutional reforms needed for EU accession.

The result shows that such interference may not always succeed in shifting outcomes where public sentiment is strong – and sends a message to other countries vulnerable to Russian malign influence operations that choosing a pro‑European path under pressure remains a viable option.

Crucially, as IWPR Executive Director Anthony Borden wrote this week, the vote also marks “a rare moment of real success for grass roots efforts in empowering local voices”.

Moldovans, he continued, “handed Russia a modest but essential defeat – and chose decisively for better days”.

 THE BOTTOM LINE 

Moldova now needs to focus on building public trust, healing internal discord and ensuring crucial reforms take place. Russia is certain to continue its concerted efforts to derail the country’s democratic path; IWPR will continue working with local partners to ensure Moldovans are free to decide their own political future.

“If reforms falter or discontent grows, the opposition - fragmented today - may regroup tomorrow,” Puiu wrote. “The Kremlin will not withdraw, but rather will adapt its strategies. Moldova remains on the frontline, and the contest is far from over.”