Misunderstanding the Presidential Race

A leading international expert on elections says that there appears to be confusion about what is required for Goodluck Jonathan to win outright, the presidential election, now scheduled for April the 16th.

Ivor Gaber, Professor of Political Journalism at City University London, says that many commentators are under the impression that Jonathan can be blocked from winning a first-round victory, if the CPC’s General Buhari, gets more than 25% of the votes in a certain number of states. Others say that Jonathan must win more than 50% of the vote to be elected first-time round.

Neither is right.

For Jonathan to win on the first round, says Gaber, Section 134 of the constitution makes the situation clear. To win, a candidate has to be in first place AND secure at least 25% of the vote in two thirds of the states, plus the Federal Capital Territory, in other words, 25 states.

Gaber goes on to say that it makes no difference how many votes the other candidates attract if Jonathan has succeeded in reaching this target.

Indeed, attempts by supporters of the CPC candidate, to persuade others to drop out of the race, would be counter-productive. This is because there can be no guarantee that all their votes would go to Buhari, some would inevitably leak to Jonathan, observes the UK-based academic.

For the opposition to succeed, they should be concentrating their activities in those states where they believe that Jonathan’s vote is hovering near the 25% level. If they can succeed in this in at least 12 states they will force the election into a second round, says Gaber.