Migrants from Russia Won't Relocate to Kazakstan

Fears that Kazakstan will see a huge influx of labour migrants now that Russian migration laws have been tightened are unfounded, according to NBCentralAsia analysts. The local labour market cannot soak up large numbers of extra workers and is in any case less attractive than Russia’s.



On April 20, Kazak interior minister Baurjan Muhamedjanov announced that his ministry is expecting a large influx of migrants because of the tougher migration laws in Russia, the Kazakhstan Today news agency reported.



Migration restrictions which, among other things, ban foreigners from trading at Russian markets - where significant numbers of people from the Caucasus and Central Asia used to work – came into effect on April 1.



Despite the minister’s fears that some migrants will be “forced” to move to Kazakstan, political observers doubt that “gastarbeiters” would rather move to Kazakstan than simply look for another job or apply for citizenship in Russia.



“The number of migrants Kazakstan can soak up will stay the same,” said political scientist Oleg Sidorov.



Demand for labour in Russia will continue to grow, while migrant workers in Kazakstan will remain concentrated in the cities of Almaty and Astana and the regions where oil is extracted, he said.



“There are many more [big] cities in Russia. It is unlikely that Kazakstan needs to fear a huge influx of labour migrants in the near future,” he said.



Political scientist Eduard Poletaev, editor-in-chief of the Mir Yevrazii journal, says Kazakstan’s labour market cannot be compared with Russia’s.



“[Labour migrants] can find employment in the Russia’s service industries, but they can’t find a job so easily everywhere in Kazakstan…. I think it would be difficult to lure migrants to Kazakstan, given that it can’t offer bigger salaries than Russia,” he said.



Poletaev predicts that some migrants will make the move as Kazakstan currently has about 300,000 unfilled jobs, but local wages are going to fall, making it unprofitable for new arrivals to work there.



“It should be recognised that the [labour] market has become static, and it will be difficult to change it. All the well-paid positions are occupied, so migrants [from Russia} will only be able to get low-paid jobs.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)