Kyrgyz Opposition Unity Crumbles

Two weeks after Kyrgyzstan’s opposition closed ranks and pledged not to field multiple candidates in this summer’s presidential election, one of the parties announced it was putting its own leader forward.

Analysts say these tactics have driven a wedge into what was supposed to be a united front and could fatally damage the opposition’s chances of unseating the incumbent Kurmanbek Bakiev on July 23.

Last month, the United People’s Movement, UPM – an umbrella group comprising the major opposition parties – announced that Social Democratic Party leader and former prime minister Almazbek Atambaev was to be its lead candidate, with former defence minister Ismail Isakov named as his running-mate. (See Kyrgyz Opposition Candidate Seen as Stalking-Horse, RCA No. 574, 24-Apr-09.)

Although some analysts speculated that a more heavyweight figure might replace Atambaev once the election race got under way, the message was clear – all the parties were going to put aside their differences and back one main candidate with one in reserve.

There was therefore some consternation when at a congress on May 4, the Ak Shumkar party nominated its leader Temir Sariev to run for office.

“At the congress, the party nominated me to run for the presidency, and I will obey that decision. We are not leaving the UPM. Ours is an opposition party, and we regard ourselves as opponents of the current government,” Sariev told IWPR afterwards.

Three days later, the UPM expelled Sariev for going against the agreed position.

A day later, the UPM leadership issued a statement explaining its decision, saying, “There are many individuals with excellent leadership qualities among the UPM’s members, but we decided that the welfare of our country should be placed far above personal ambition.”

Sariev expressed disappointment at the news of his expulsion, but remained unrepentant.

“I believed we [UPM] were risking a lot by nominating one candidate,” he said, with reference to Atambaev. “At any moment that individual can be ruled out of the election campaign, and then it will be impossible to fix things.”

Rumours that Sariev was unhappy with the UPM’s choice of candidate had been circulating for some time. His failure to attend an April 25 meeting at which Atambaev’s nomination was formally approved was seen as significant at the time.

Sariev was at one time a Social Democrat like Atambaev, but he objected strongly when the latter agreed to become prime minister in March 2007. President Bakiev was reeling after as series of anti-government rallies, and made a number of concessions including offering cabinet positions to his opponents.

Although Atambaev said he was taking the job so as to build bridges at a time of deepening divisions in Kyrgyzstan, some of his colleagues like Sariev viewed his decision as a betrayal of everything they stood for.

At the recent Ak Shumkar convention, Sariev recalled his disappointment, saying, “We, the opposition, did not mandate Atambaev to become prime minister on our behalf. I left the Social Democrats after that.”

Some political analysts believe Sariev’s decision to run for the presidency marks an end to the unity the UPM has succeeded in forging since it was set up in December as the latest in a series of attempts to build a lasting opposition coalition.

“In fact, there is no longer any UPM, as such,” analyst Nur Omarov said in an interview for the Bishkek Press Club. “The movement has disintegrated. We can expect to see a split in the vote, because in place of the promised nomination of a single candidate, there are in actually three opposition candidates.”

In Omarov’s view, “It is therefore safe to assume that the current president will win the election. His team works much more efficiently than the opposition.”

With the departure of Sariev, the UPM has lost an important asset in more ways than one.

He is not only an experienced and well-regarded politician, but amassed considerable wealth as a successful businessman in the Nineties. Resources are always an issue for political parties in Kyrgyzstan.

Omurbek Tekebaev, who leads the biggest of the opposition parties, Ata Meken, accepts that losing Sariev will weaken the UPM.

At the same time, he voiced respect for the politician’s decision to go it alone, saying, “That is his right.”

“Ak Shumkar is a young party whose members probably want to participate [in the election] on their own,” added Tekebaev.

Sariev himself says his party is prepared to work with “progressive forces including the UPM” wherever they can find common ground.

“Opposition is a broad canvas, and no one has a right to include or exclude anyone else,” he said.

Meanwhile, there were few surprises when the governing Ak Jol party met on May 1 and nominated just one candidate, President Bakiev. He made it clear he planned to run for a second term as far back as February.

In all, eight contenders – not including Sariev – have now been approved as candidates by Kyrgyzstan’s national election body. Apart from Bakiev, Atambaev and Isakov, they include the head of the Peasant Farmers’Party Kuttubek Asylbekov; Nurlan Motuev, who heads a “patriotic movement” called Joomart; leading doctor Jenyshbek Nazaraliev; businessman Akbaraly Aitikeev and teacher Muratbek Borombaev.

Anara Yusupova is a pseudonym used by a reporter in Bishkek.