Kazakstan Remains Wary of Pakistan as Trading Partner

Kazakstan Remains Wary of Pakistan as Trading Partner

Wednesday, 25 April, 2007
Kazakstan remains reluctant to boost commercial ties with Pakistan because of concerns over instability in the region, and China and India look like much better bets as trading partners.



A meeting of the Kazakstan-Pakistan ministerial commission in Astana on April 18-20 discussed opportunities for cooperation on trade, science, new technologies and energy. Pakistani officials called for direct flights between Kazakstan and Islamabad and relaxed visa regulations for Pakistani businessmen.



NBCentralAsia commentators say that after years of talks, geopolitical issues still stand in the way of any significant breakthroughs in the areas of trade, professional exchanges, or the proposal that Pakistan could become a transit route for supplying Kazak hydrocarbons to South Asia.



According to NBCentralAsia analyst Yaroslav Razumov, “Astana is reluctant to strengthen relations with Islamabad in view of the problematic political situation in the region - Pakistan’s involvement in the Afghan conflict, its confrontation with India, and its difficult relationship with Iran.”



Increased economic cooperation could force Kazakstan into the difficult position of having to make political choices about other people’s conflicts, and Razumov argues that for reasons of pragmatism, Astana prefers to remain at arm’s length.



Pakistan’s offer to provide a southward transit route for Central Asian oil and gas is also unrealistic, given that Afghanistan, which lies between it and Central Asia, remains unstable.



Political scientist Dosym Satpaev, director of the Risk Assessment Group, says trade between the two countries is inhibited by the high political and economic risks that Kazakstan businesses face in Pakistan.



Satpaev also argues that Kazakstan does not have a clear policy on dealing with countries which do not match its own economic development model.



“Pakistan is a country for which Kazakstan has no clearly-defined strategy. Kazakstan chooses its partners according to its energy [export] priorities, or for the modern technologies they can offer it. Pakistan is of little interest in either regard, whereas India is of far greater interest in terms of developing innovative technology,” he said.



China, too, is a serious competitor as a trade and energy partner. Razumov said, “China is most active in securing future deliveries of oil and gas supplies from Kazakstan and other Central Asian states, and it is has no interest in seeing branch pipelines go to Pakistan,” Razumov added. “Beijing and Islamabads are competitors in this area.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)

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