Kazak Opposition Baulks at No Protest Pact

Opposition groups in Kazakstan has criticised a move by the ruling Nur Otan party to get them to sign up to an agreement intended to contain public protests as long as the current economic crisis continues.

Three opposition leaders – Bulat Abilov of the Azat party, Serikbolsyn Abdildin of the Communist Party of Kazakstan and Jarmakhan Tuyakbay of the National Social Democratic Party – issued a statement condemning Nur Otan’s initiative on March 17, saying the real aim of Nur Otan’s “memorandum on maintaining political stability” was to avert public protests against the government. This, they said, was an unrealistic aim.

They were responding to a ceremony two days earlier at which five pro-government groups – the Party of Patriots, Ruhaniat, Auyl, Adilet and the Communist People’s Party – joined Nur Otan in signing the memorandum.

This national pact was the culmination of a campaign that has seen Nur Otan entering into similar agreements with party branches, trade unions and non-government groups on a region-by-region basis.

The document says signatories have a common understanding that they should support efforts to overcome the current economic crisis, and create a “space for dialogue” on these issues.

Darkhan Kaletaev, Nur Otan’s first deputy chairman – the party is chaired by President Nursultan Nazarbaev – said the deal marked a “historic moment” at which all political forces needed to “unite for the sake of the people”.

He underlined that other parties were welcome to sign up to the agreement, saying, “This memorandum is open to all political parties and political forces.”

In a thinly-veiled hint to the opposition, Nur Otan’s representative in Almaty, Gulnara Samenbekova, said, “This is not the time to voice criticism or come out with destructive initiatives.”
Samenbekova was in no doubt that Nur Otan was the right group to lead the consolidation effort.

“In a society with a multi-party system, it is normal that there should be different views – that’s a normal sign of democracy – but we are the ruling party and we are responsible for preserving stability,” she said.

The 2007 legislative election left Nur Otan the only one of Kazakstan’s ten parties represented in parliament.

Nur Otan’s campaign to forge a national alliance was given the green light by President Nazarbaev, who told a February 12 meeting to mark the party’s tenth anniversary that it should act as a driving force to bring all political parties together during a difficult times.

Kazakstan has suffered badly in the global financial crisis. Its over-extended banks have drastically curtailed lending, cutting off the lifeblood of local businesses and construction firms. Meanwhile, falling prices for oil and metals have hit export revenues.

Officials say thousands of people have been put out of work by the closure of businesses across the country. The revaluation of the Kazak currency last month, intended to restore the economy’s competitiveness on international markets, has led to a jump in the prices of imported foodstuffs and consumer goods.

Critics of the initiative say Nur Otan is simply trying to neutralise possible protests. They argue that it is not in any political party’s gift to halt demonstrations and other expressions of anger by members of the public.

They see the Nur Otan-led pact as an attempt to coopt support in order to get the Nazarbaev administration through a difficult period, and believe the dialogue the memorandum proposes will be a far from equal one.

“Nothing good will come of the current attempts by the authorities to solve this problem [potential instability] by forcing public organisations to consolidate, imposing discipline on them, and threatening repressive action if they do not comply,” said the open letter sent by opposition leaders Abilov, Abdildin and Tuyakbay.

“Public outrage is driven not by calls [to action] from the opposition, but by growing unemployment, fast-rising prices, gloomy prospects, and the ever more apparent inability of the authorities to handle the crisis.”

Analysts say the authorities have made a mistake by reverting to the usual top-down approach to policymaking.

Political analyst Andrei Chebotarev told IWPR that Nur Otan would have done better to choose a more inclusive, consultative approach.

“They devised [the memorandum] and then made a statement in the media,” he said, “whereas they should have gathered the leaders of political parties together to discuss the need for this kind of document.”

Chebotarev agrees with the point the opposition leaders made in their letter – that the pact will not succeed in stifling public discontent.

“The idea of temporarily refraining from public meetings was wrong from the outset,” he said. “Right now, the situation is that various protest actions are being organised by ordinary people who are not linked to any party. [They include] small investors who have lost money in failed construction firms, people struggling to pay their mortgages, and factory workers whose wages are being delayed.

“So you can negotiate with the parties, but it isn’t possible to sign a memorandum with the people.”

Amirjan Kosanov of the National Social Democrats suggested that the memorandum had been conceived after all else had failed.

“Initially, the president’s administration probably decided to use its own channels and tried to get [local-level agreements] signed by enlisting the provincial governors.”

In recent weeks there has been a series of announcements about “no protest” agreements signed by local party offices, NGOs and others at provincial level. (For a report on a local action that went against one of these deals, see Kazakstan: Small Show of Defiance Against Protest “Ban”, RCA No. 569, 10-Mar-09.)

Many critics of the scheme doubt whether it has anything more than symbolic value.

Ninel Fokina from Almaty Helsinki Committee, a human rights group, was dismissive of the memorandum, saying it was not binding and there was no way of legally enforcing it.

Kosanov said the fact that the opposition parties had abstained meant the pact carried little force.

“Predictably, [the document] was signed by organisations and parties loyal to the authorities,” he said.

Nur Otan may now be able to report back to the president that it has fulfilled the task he set it, but that will not stave off protests, said Kosanov.

“What’s of real importance to the public is not this memorandum, but shop prices and utility bills,” he added.

Marik Koshabaev is an IWPR-trained journalist in Almaty.