Georgian Opposition Disputes Saakashvili Election Win
As the incumbent is awarded a clear if not resounding victory, his opponents appear undaunted.
Georgian Opposition Disputes Saakashvili Election Win
As the incumbent is awarded a clear if not resounding victory, his opponents appear undaunted.
As the final results of Georgia's presidential election gave the incumbent Mikheil Saakashvili a clear win, it was already clear the vote had failed to create anything like a political consensus.
With all the results in, the Central Election Commission said Saakashvili won 52.2 per cent of the vote, while the main opposition candidate, Levan Gachechiladze, scored 25.3 per cent, and the best-performing of five others got just seven per cent. Saakashvili’s clear lead means he will not have to go through a second-round vote, which some analysts argued could have left him vulnerable.
Despite these figures, the opposition insists the election was rigged and is demanding a second round, with supporters pledging to mount protests every day until their demands are met.
According to Gachechiladze, a mass rally involving many thousands of people will take place on January 13.
Opposition supporters staged a demonstration outside Georgia’s public broadcasting building on January 8 to highlight their concern at what they saw as one-sided and unfair treatment by the state media.
“We don’t get any chance to address the public in a live broadcast on any TV channel, since all of them are controlled by the government. The broadcast companies don’t carry any of our press conferences,” said Gachechiladze, adding that he would stage a hunger strike from January 9.
“I’d rather die than surrender! I’ll fight to the end, I will never stop as long as I’m alive, unless you kill me,” he told protesters.
Also on January 8, Gachechiladze and his supporters broke into the offices of the head of the Central Election Committee, Levan Tarkhnishvili, where they confronted him, accusing him of fixing the election results and demanding his resignation and a second ballot.
This snap election was called after rising political tensions that culminated in a mass opposition rally, which the police broke up with considerable force on November 7.
Saakashvili, who won his first election in 2004 with 96 per cent of the vote, thinks the lower figure of 52 per cent that he got this time is “convincing”.
“A presidential candidate will never [again] receive 96 per cent of the vote in Georgia. We are now a country with a western democracy. The opposition was able to put up strong competition in this election. I consider it a victory for Georgian democracy,” he said.
Saakashvili’s supporters have been celebrating since election day, after exit polls indicated that Saakashvili was leading with 53 per cent.
Cars with flags and banners mounted on their roofs drove around the snow-covered streets of Tbilisi, honking their horns, those inside yelling “Misha” – the affectionate name by which the president is known.
Saakashvili has already received congratulations from the heads of state of countries such as France and Poland, as well as the former Soviet countries of Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia.
His inauguration has been announced for January 20.
International organisations that monitored the polls said they were by and large up to democratic standards. The OSCE’s observer mission said the vote was “in essence consistent with most international standards for democratic elections” but added that “significant challenges were revealed”.
The mission’s head, United States Congressman Alcee Hastings, told a January 6 press conference that the vote was “a viable expression of the free choice of the Georgian people”, and that as a result “democracy took a triumphant step".
The opposition disputes these findings. After meeting foreign diplomats and journalists, Gachechiladze urged the international community to be cautious about hailing this election as a success so that “the Georgian people would not hate the West and democracy”.
The election authorities put turnout at 56 per cent nationwide. Among the factors that may have depressed the turnout figure, the unusually cold and snowy weather played a part. Ice on the roads disrupted public transport and only the bravest of drivers ventured out onto the streets of Tbilisi.
“It’s as if it was on purpose”, said an official at the polling station where one IWPR contributor voted. “Many people won’t come out because of the weather alone”.
However, the freezing weather did not deter the opposition supporters who turned out in subsequent days to protest against the results.
“We came to this rally in order to restore our dignity,” said Sergo, a 67-year-old pensioner shivering from the cold. “Saakashvili cannot have won - victory belongs to the opposition.”
Despite all the controversy, political analysts say one positive aspect of this election is that it was genuinely competitive.
Even the relatively low percentage scored by Saakashvili is seen as something of a positive sign. The outcomes of previous presidential elections have been foregone conclusions, and this is the first time in the 17 years that Georgia has been independent that a candidate has won with less than 80 per cent support.
Political analyst Soso Tsiskarishvili argues that the election marks a watershed in Georgia’s political development.
“From the preliminary election results, we see that the era of a monopoly for one ruling party is now over, as is the myth of a weak opposition. We consider this the main achievement of this election” he said.
This new reality is something Saakashvili is going to have to live with, and a general election expected this spring may present him with further problems. The parliamentary ballot was brought forward from autumn 2008 in a plebiscite conducted simultaneously with the presidential election.
Many observers are predicting that political turbulence will continue at least until this next election.
“The parliamentary election is no less important for Georgia,” said analyst Archil Gegeshidze. “Saakashvili is now assuming power with the minimum level of [public] confidence – he hardly made it over 50 per cent. In this situation, victory looks an unlikely prospect for his ruling National Movement party in the parliamentary election.”
Gegeshidze predicts that the new parliament will be “diverse, even opposition” in composition.
The opposition parties are in a stronger position than Gachechiladze’s performance alone suggests – the various factions failed to unite behind a single candidate, but still got 42 per cent of the vote, taken together. And that was achieved with less than two months to prepare for the snap vote.
As a continuation of the confrontation seen in November, this election has left the Georgian public sharply divided into two camps – supporters and opponents of Saakashvili.
Guram Samkharadze, a 59-year-old engineer, voted for Gachechiladze at the elections because of the violence meted out by police in November.
“Saakashvili may be a more professional politician, but after November 7, when he raised his hand against his own people, I couldn’t vote for him,” he said. “Everyone I know backed Gachechiladze, so it’s an interesting question how Saakashvili managed to win.”
Nana Baliashvili, a 30-year old economist from Tbilisi found herself on the opposite side to her husband, a Gachechiladze supporter, when she voted for Saakashvili.
“I don’t think Georgia has ever had such an interesting, democratic and hot-tempered election,” she said. “To its credit, the opposition was very active. Even though it lost, it still enjoys serious support among the people. I’ve been discussing political issues more than household matters with my husband lately”.
Saakashvili has admitted that the result demonstrated his government’s failings as well as its successes, and has pledged to devote his second term to social concerns, in a country where one-third of population lives in poverty. He has also promised constructive cooperation with the opposition, and says he is ready to invite opposition figures to join his government.
“This election opened my eyes to many of my mistakes.” he said during a live talk-show on Georgian TV on January 8.
Many Georgians would like to see Saakashvili live up to this newfound humility and focus more on the livelihood concerns that affect them.
Lado, a 54-year-old historian in Tbilisi, voted for Saakashvili but wants him to “fix the mistakes he made during his first term in office”.
“I am looking forward to seeing social problems resolved as well as reforms to the judicial system. And of course he should talk to us ordinary people more often, and not look down at us from heights of power, as was the case during the more recent years of his presidency”, he said.
“And I wish he wouldn’t fly abroad so frequently. We need Misha to be here at home more often.”
Sopho Bukia is IWPR’s Georgia editor. Mari Betlemidze works for Panorama, a monthly newspaper for the Caucasus, supported by IWPR.
With all the results in, the Central Election Commission said Saakashvili won 52.2 per cent of the vote, while the main opposition candidate, Levan Gachechiladze, scored 25.3 per cent, and the best-performing of five others got just seven per cent. Saakashvili’s clear lead means he will not have to go through a second-round vote, which some analysts argued could have left him vulnerable.
Despite these figures, the opposition insists the election was rigged and is demanding a second round, with supporters pledging to mount protests every day until their demands are met.
According to Gachechiladze, a mass rally involving many thousands of people will take place on January 13.
Opposition supporters staged a demonstration outside Georgia’s public broadcasting building on January 8 to highlight their concern at what they saw as one-sided and unfair treatment by the state media.
“We don’t get any chance to address the public in a live broadcast on any TV channel, since all of them are controlled by the government. The broadcast companies don’t carry any of our press conferences,” said Gachechiladze, adding that he would stage a hunger strike from January 9.
“I’d rather die than surrender! I’ll fight to the end, I will never stop as long as I’m alive, unless you kill me,” he told protesters.
Also on January 8, Gachechiladze and his supporters broke into the offices of the head of the Central Election Committee, Levan Tarkhnishvili, where they confronted him, accusing him of fixing the election results and demanding his resignation and a second ballot.
This snap election was called after rising political tensions that culminated in a mass opposition rally, which the police broke up with considerable force on November 7.
Saakashvili, who won his first election in 2004 with 96 per cent of the vote, thinks the lower figure of 52 per cent that he got this time is “convincing”.
“A presidential candidate will never [again] receive 96 per cent of the vote in Georgia. We are now a country with a western democracy. The opposition was able to put up strong competition in this election. I consider it a victory for Georgian democracy,” he said.
Saakashvili’s supporters have been celebrating since election day, after exit polls indicated that Saakashvili was leading with 53 per cent.
Cars with flags and banners mounted on their roofs drove around the snow-covered streets of Tbilisi, honking their horns, those inside yelling “Misha” – the affectionate name by which the president is known.
Saakashvili has already received congratulations from the heads of state of countries such as France and Poland, as well as the former Soviet countries of Ukraine, Lithuania and Latvia.
His inauguration has been announced for January 20.
International organisations that monitored the polls said they were by and large up to democratic standards. The OSCE’s observer mission said the vote was “in essence consistent with most international standards for democratic elections” but added that “significant challenges were revealed”.
The mission’s head, United States Congressman Alcee Hastings, told a January 6 press conference that the vote was “a viable expression of the free choice of the Georgian people”, and that as a result “democracy took a triumphant step".
The opposition disputes these findings. After meeting foreign diplomats and journalists, Gachechiladze urged the international community to be cautious about hailing this election as a success so that “the Georgian people would not hate the West and democracy”.
The election authorities put turnout at 56 per cent nationwide. Among the factors that may have depressed the turnout figure, the unusually cold and snowy weather played a part. Ice on the roads disrupted public transport and only the bravest of drivers ventured out onto the streets of Tbilisi.
“It’s as if it was on purpose”, said an official at the polling station where one IWPR contributor voted. “Many people won’t come out because of the weather alone”.
However, the freezing weather did not deter the opposition supporters who turned out in subsequent days to protest against the results.
“We came to this rally in order to restore our dignity,” said Sergo, a 67-year-old pensioner shivering from the cold. “Saakashvili cannot have won - victory belongs to the opposition.”
Despite all the controversy, political analysts say one positive aspect of this election is that it was genuinely competitive.
Even the relatively low percentage scored by Saakashvili is seen as something of a positive sign. The outcomes of previous presidential elections have been foregone conclusions, and this is the first time in the 17 years that Georgia has been independent that a candidate has won with less than 80 per cent support.
Political analyst Soso Tsiskarishvili argues that the election marks a watershed in Georgia’s political development.
“From the preliminary election results, we see that the era of a monopoly for one ruling party is now over, as is the myth of a weak opposition. We consider this the main achievement of this election” he said.
This new reality is something Saakashvili is going to have to live with, and a general election expected this spring may present him with further problems. The parliamentary ballot was brought forward from autumn 2008 in a plebiscite conducted simultaneously with the presidential election.
Many observers are predicting that political turbulence will continue at least until this next election.
“The parliamentary election is no less important for Georgia,” said analyst Archil Gegeshidze. “Saakashvili is now assuming power with the minimum level of [public] confidence – he hardly made it over 50 per cent. In this situation, victory looks an unlikely prospect for his ruling National Movement party in the parliamentary election.”
Gegeshidze predicts that the new parliament will be “diverse, even opposition” in composition.
The opposition parties are in a stronger position than Gachechiladze’s performance alone suggests – the various factions failed to unite behind a single candidate, but still got 42 per cent of the vote, taken together. And that was achieved with less than two months to prepare for the snap vote.
As a continuation of the confrontation seen in November, this election has left the Georgian public sharply divided into two camps – supporters and opponents of Saakashvili.
Guram Samkharadze, a 59-year-old engineer, voted for Gachechiladze at the elections because of the violence meted out by police in November.
“Saakashvili may be a more professional politician, but after November 7, when he raised his hand against his own people, I couldn’t vote for him,” he said. “Everyone I know backed Gachechiladze, so it’s an interesting question how Saakashvili managed to win.”
Nana Baliashvili, a 30-year old economist from Tbilisi found herself on the opposite side to her husband, a Gachechiladze supporter, when she voted for Saakashvili.
“I don’t think Georgia has ever had such an interesting, democratic and hot-tempered election,” she said. “To its credit, the opposition was very active. Even though it lost, it still enjoys serious support among the people. I’ve been discussing political issues more than household matters with my husband lately”.
Saakashvili has admitted that the result demonstrated his government’s failings as well as its successes, and has pledged to devote his second term to social concerns, in a country where one-third of population lives in poverty. He has also promised constructive cooperation with the opposition, and says he is ready to invite opposition figures to join his government.
“This election opened my eyes to many of my mistakes.” he said during a live talk-show on Georgian TV on January 8.
Many Georgians would like to see Saakashvili live up to this newfound humility and focus more on the livelihood concerns that affect them.
Lado, a 54-year-old historian in Tbilisi, voted for Saakashvili but wants him to “fix the mistakes he made during his first term in office”.
“I am looking forward to seeing social problems resolved as well as reforms to the judicial system. And of course he should talk to us ordinary people more often, and not look down at us from heights of power, as was the case during the more recent years of his presidency”, he said.
“And I wish he wouldn’t fly abroad so frequently. We need Misha to be here at home more often.”
Sopho Bukia is IWPR’s Georgia editor. Mari Betlemidze works for Panorama, a monthly newspaper for the Caucasus, supported by IWPR.
