First Signs of Ruling Dynasty in Tajikistan

The son of Tajik president Imomali Rahmon is being seen as a rising star on the political scene after taking a top post in a national youth organisation.



Rustam Imomali, 23, was elected as deputy chairman of the Youth Union on April 16.



The association, which is quasi-governmental and operates under the state committee for youth affairs, is the successor to the Komsomol, the Communist youth organisation of Soviet times. With the trade union federation, it is one of only two public associations that has the right to collectively nominate a presidential candidate.



Rustam Imomali, who has taken his father’s first name as his surname, is the elder of the two sons and one of a total of nine children. He currently works at the government’s investment and state property agency, as well as attending some classes at the elite Diplomatic Academy in Moscow. He is also a patron of Istiqlol, a football club in Dushanbe, and is even said to play for the team on occasion.



Many analysts believe Rustam’s elevation could be an attempt to test the water for a political career – perhaps even to step into his father’s shoes one day. But this would be a long-term plan, as he will not have reached the required age of 35 by the time the next presidential election comes round in 2013.



Rahmon, who has held office uninterrupted since 1991, would be eligible to stand again under a constitutional change dating from 2003. With the seven-year term that is now the rule, he could be head of state until 2020.



Two of Rustam’s sisters have already made names for themselves – Ozoda, is head of the foreign ministry’s consular department, while Tahmina runs a successful business.



Although daughters of other Central Asian leaders, such as Dariga Nazarbaeva in Kazakstan and Gulnara Karimova in Uzbekistan, have combined business with public life, in Tajikistan’s case the choice could fall on Rustam as the elder son.



Political analyst Rustam Samiev is clear that this is the launch of a dynasty. “The president and his entourage want to stay in power for many decades to come,” he said.



But another analyst, Rashid Abdullo, said the phenomenon of families involved in high politics was not unique to Central Asia.



“The United States has had dynasties occupying senior government posts – the Kennedies, the Bush family and now the Clintons,” he said, noting that there were also similar trends in Syria and Libya.



Other analysts point to the experience in other Central Asian states and nearby Azerbaijan, where the success of presidential dynasties has been variable.



In Azerbaijan, Heydar Aliev, who had been in charge on and off since the 1960s, was succeeded by his son Ilham when he died in 2003.



But as well-known journalist Rajabi Mirzo points out, there is one thing that sets Azerbaijan apart from Tajikistan. “The [Ilham] Aliev case was a success because this is a country rich in oil and gas,” he said, noting that countries like Tajikistan was “rich only in the mass of impoverished people”.



Taking an example closer to home, Mirzo recalled that one of the factors that turned the popular mood against Kyrgyz president Askar Akaev and led to him being ousted in 2005 was the perception that family members were exploiting their connections to build power, influence and wealth.



At one point, the president’s son Aydar Akaev was tipped for a political career.



“We still remember how there was a similar impulse [to promote family members] in Kyrgyzstan, and how that ended,” said Mirzo.



The abrupt transition of power in Kyrgyzstan has not changed things, and the sense of public unease there remains as strong as ever.



Samiev noted that present leader Kurmanbek Bakiev’s reputation has also been damaged by the alleged misbehaviour of relatives.



“Having the offspring of the Kyrgyz president participating in politics did not do their father any favours – people still don’t trust the president,” he said.



An alternative explanation for Rustam’s promotion is that the Youth Union is trying to win favour with President Rahmon, so as to bring the group closer to the centre of political decision-making.



They might well have reason to do that, say some, as the Youth Union appears to be flagging.



Dilshod Kurbanov, a representative of the state committee for youth affairs, told IWPR that the union is in need of a shake-up. It plays little role in public life, he said, because young people in Tajikistan are uninterested in politics and are preoccupied with their own problems.



Kurbonov hopes Rustam will help breathe new life into the organisation.



The Youth Union has a large pool of potential recruits, in a country where 35 per cent of the population are aged between 15 and 30. However, the majority of the hundreds of thousands of Tajiks working as migrants in Russia and Kazakstan fall into this age range of 20 to 30.



Khayri Kiyamova is a pseudonym for a journalist in Dushanbe.