Expatriate Vote Unlikely to Affect Presidential Result
Expatriate Vote Unlikely to Affect Presidential Result
The hundreds of thousands of Tajiks working in Russia should have in theory have a significant impact on this November’s presidential election – especially since their government is setting up polling stations for them in Moscow and other cities. Despite this, NBCentralAsia analysts predict that few of the migrants will cast their votes.
Tajikistan’s Central Electoral Committee has said there will be 25 polling stations abroad, eight of them in major Russian conurbations.
Official statistics put the number of Tajik migrant workers in Russia at about 400,000, although it is believed that the figure may reach one million at the peak of the employment season.
The November 6 ballot falls towards the end of the working year for many migrants, so some will return to Tajikistan in time to vote there. But of the hundreds of thousands who remain, only a small proportion will use their vote, NBCentralAsia analysts say.
One reason is that large numbers of Tajiks are working in Russia illegally, and in previous elections many were scared off by police who stopped people to run ID checks on them.
In addition, anyone who does not live in one of the eight cities with a polling station might have to travel a long distance to get there.
Although the turnout in the presidential ballot is expected to be higher than in last year’s parliamentary election, when just 24,000 people voted in Russia, NBCentralAsia analysts believe the expatriate vote will not rise substantially.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
Tajikistan’s Central Electoral Committee has said there will be 25 polling stations abroad, eight of them in major Russian conurbations.
Official statistics put the number of Tajik migrant workers in Russia at about 400,000, although it is believed that the figure may reach one million at the peak of the employment season.
The November 6 ballot falls towards the end of the working year for many migrants, so some will return to Tajikistan in time to vote there. But of the hundreds of thousands who remain, only a small proportion will use their vote, NBCentralAsia analysts say.
One reason is that large numbers of Tajiks are working in Russia illegally, and in previous elections many were scared off by police who stopped people to run ID checks on them.
In addition, anyone who does not live in one of the eight cities with a polling station might have to travel a long distance to get there.
Although the turnout in the presidential ballot is expected to be higher than in last year’s parliamentary election, when just 24,000 people voted in Russia, NBCentralAsia analysts believe the expatriate vote will not rise substantially.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
