EU Deploys Two-Year Monitoring Mission in Armenia

The EU has deployed an expanded monitoring mission to Armenia’s volatile border with Azerbaijan in a move that confirms Brussels’ increased commitment in a region that Moscow historically considered its sphere of influence.

In response, the Russian foreign ministry stated that the EU mission would only further stoke "geopolitical confrontation".

The EU Mission in Armenia (EUMA) officially started on February 20 and comprises “exclusively civilian staff [that] will number approximately 100 in total, including around 50 unarmed observers,” according to a press release.

Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan welcomed the deployment, stating he was “deeply thankful to the EU and member states for manifestation of strong solidarity with Armenia,” and adding that EUMA would “play a role in de-escalation and establishing stability and ultimately bringing peace to the region”.

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan echoed this sentiment on February 21, as he met EU officials in Yerevan, including EUMA head Markus Ritter.

The scheme builds upon the 40-person European Union Monitoring Capacity (EUMCAP) mission deployed in October 2022 in the same area. The two-month project was seen as necessary given fighting on the border in mid-September, when Armenian villages came under fire as Azerbaijani forces pushed into Armenia’s territory. Hostilities claimed over 300 lives on both sides.

EUMCAP received a cold reception from Baku, which nevertheless agreed to cooperate with it. In Armenia the mission was criticised by the political opposition for not publicly releasing any reports.

Analysts, however, evaluated it positively.

“[Its] deployment was a significant step in emphasising EU interest and involvement in the South Caucasus and in Armenia,” Benyamin Poghosyan, director of the Centre for Political and Economic Strategic Studies in Yerevan, told IWPR.

DEEPER ENGAGEMENT

Calls for a more robust and long-term monitoring mission were heard even before EUMCAP’s remit ended on December 19 2022. France’s foreign minister Catherine Colonna stated that the mission “really limited the danger of escalation” and “should continue as long as it is needed”.

The new deployment is more than double the size of EUMCAP, but half that of the European Union Monitoring Mission (EUMM) in neighbouring Georgia that has observed the administrative boundary lines with Abkhazia and South Ossetia since late 2008.

EUMA’s initial budget is 8.1 million euros (8.6 US dollars) for the first four months of its two-year deployment. Chief of mission Ritter is head of the German Federal Police Headquarters in Stuttgart and the former chief of EU Advisory Mission (EUAM) in Iraq.

“The EU’s decision for this comparatively expensive mission, also because of the necessary equipment, can be seen as a clear sign that the EU really wants to commit itself to reduce tensions at the border and to support the aligned political process,” said Tobias Piatz, deputy head of analysis at the Centre for International Peace Operations (ZIF). ZIF is a government agency that provides German personnel to missions such as EUMA.

However, in January, as Brussels approved the mission, the Azerbaijani foreign ministry said that “such an engagement must not be exploited for derailing the normalisation process between Azerbaijan and Armenia, including in the context of border delimitation process that should be carried out exclusively on a bilateral basis”.

Farid Shafiyev, who heads the Baku-based, pro-government Centre of Analysis of International Relations, told IWPR that Azerbaijan had conceptual as well as political concerns.

“First, Azerbaijan believes that Armenia and Azerbaijan should sign a peace treaty with the mutual recognition of territorial integrity and then to launch the process of delimitation and demarcation,” he explained. “There is no clear border [so] a question arises how any violation will be established.”
 

Concerns remain in some circles, including in Brussels. In a report released on January 30, the International Crisis Group think tank quoted an EU diplomat as saying, “If we send a mission only to the Armenian side without Baku’s consent, it may create the wrong impression. Baku may see it as ‘the EU is against it.’”

The move has also irked Russia. After Pashinyan’s calls for a mission by the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) fell on deaf ears last autumn, Yerevan did not respond to  an offer put forward in January. Pashinyan stated that it was unacceptable "on the grounds that they refused to condemn Azerbaijan’s offensive military operations along the border”. 

As the EU deployment was rolled out, Russian government spokeswoman Maria Zakharova told reporters that “everything is being done to squeeze Russia out of the region and weaken its historical role as the main guarantor of security”.

Poghosyan maintained that that the situation was a little more complex.

“I believe Moscow is both concerned and satisfied,” he told IWPR.

He argued that Moscow believed EUMA’s deployment aimed to increase the West’s presence in the South Caucasus and diminish its own involvement in the region as well as its own attempt to mediate an Armenia-Azerbaijan peace. On the other hand, reducing the risk of new fighting is also “fully in line with Moscow’s goals,” he concluded.

Even so, concerns in Azerbaijan persist.

“Baku believes that Brussels’ contribution to Armenia’s defensive capacity [with] EUMA as a tripwire will enable Yerevan to bide its time on peace talks and wait for the emergence of an environment amenable to its interests,” said Mahammad Mammadov, an analyst at the Baku-based Topchubashov Center, which describes itself as not affiliated with the government. “Thus it is seen as part of the regional balance of power games rather than a peace-building initiative… EUMCAP was part of a larger process.”

Poghosyan posited that the underlying intention was to contribute to peace talks.

“The primary objective is to create a more conducive environment for the resumption and continuation of Armenia-Azerbaijan negotiations and the eventual signing of a peace agreement within a reasonable timescale – probably by the end of 2023,” he said.

Nonetheless, he sounded a note of caution.

“Armenia should not think that EUMA is sent by the EU to freeze the conflict and to provide it with time to strengthen its military while acting as a buffer against a potential Azerbaijani attack,” Poghosyan continued, maintaining that Yerevan should refrain from public criticism of Russia’s peacekeeping force in Karabakh and its general presence in the region.  

“Armenia is now added to the list of countries in the post-Soviet space where its defence policy is linked to the EU CSDP against a threatening country,” agreed Mammadov. “Azerbaijan is unhappy to be sharing the same basket with Russia in this regard… so the concern is that rather than contributing to peace talks, EUMA could be used to further deepen regional frictions.”

While aware of these concerns, ZIF’s Pietz maintained that the mission’s potential far outweighed its risks.

“Yes, Azerbaijan and Russia have not signaled their support for EUMA but especially Baku has no interest to jeopardise its ties, including economically, with the EU by putting the mission and its personnel in actual danger,” he explained. “I rather fear that encounters between local Russian border or military units with EUMA patrols might pose some risks.

“That is why it will be key for EUMA to set up respective emergency communication channels with local commanders and communities.”