Election Campaigns Flop Under Time Pressure
Election Campaigns Flop Under Time Pressure
Although recent constitutional amendments in Kazakstan theoretically make it possible to have a multi-party parliament, NBCentralAsia analysts say the president’s Nur Otan party will still win by a landslide in the August 18 election.
Speaking on July 4, President Nursultan Nazarbaev said the ideal political situation in Kazakstan would be to have two strong parties.
Nur Otan dominates Kazak politics and is now formally led by the president after constitutional amendments adopted in May allowed him to do so. In the course of the last year, Nur Otan has merged with three other parties – Asar and the Civic and Agrarian parties – making it the country’s largest political force with nearly a million members.
NBCentralAsia experts agree that Nur Otan will win 80 or 90 per cent of seats in Majilis, or lower house of parliament, in the upcoming election while alternative parties will be left by the wayside with perhaps a tenth or a fifth of the seats.
The constitutional amendments adopted in May expand parliament’s powers, raise the number of seats to 107 and change the electoral system so that members are elected by proportional representation from party lists, instead of from single-seat constituencies.
NBCentralAsia analyst Petr Svoik says that despite the recent flurry of activity among smaller parties in the hope that the amendments might bolster their chances, they do not have enough time left to launch an effective election campaign.
“Thanks to constitutional revisions, the party system has undoubtedly receive a boost,” said Svoik. “However, the time-scale for electioneering is not merely tight, it is phenomenally short.”
On June 20, the president dissolved the Majilis after being asked to do so by the parliamentary majority. The next election was scheduled for 2009, but deputies said they did not want to hold up implementing the constitutional reform until then.
Candidate nominations must now take place from June 22 to July 11 and the campaign itself will only last a month, from July 18 until August 16.
Political scientist Oleg Sidorov says the level of political activity has been very subdued because most parties were unprepared for an early election.
“The election has caught all the party leaders by surprise,” he said.
Small parties lack time and resources to mount a campaign, and have not got their campaign programme and promises ready.
Last month, changes were made to the law to ban political parties from forming election blocs, in what many observers saw was a move to further safeguard Nur Otan’s position.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
Speaking on July 4, President Nursultan Nazarbaev said the ideal political situation in Kazakstan would be to have two strong parties.
Nur Otan dominates Kazak politics and is now formally led by the president after constitutional amendments adopted in May allowed him to do so. In the course of the last year, Nur Otan has merged with three other parties – Asar and the Civic and Agrarian parties – making it the country’s largest political force with nearly a million members.
NBCentralAsia experts agree that Nur Otan will win 80 or 90 per cent of seats in Majilis, or lower house of parliament, in the upcoming election while alternative parties will be left by the wayside with perhaps a tenth or a fifth of the seats.
The constitutional amendments adopted in May expand parliament’s powers, raise the number of seats to 107 and change the electoral system so that members are elected by proportional representation from party lists, instead of from single-seat constituencies.
NBCentralAsia analyst Petr Svoik says that despite the recent flurry of activity among smaller parties in the hope that the amendments might bolster their chances, they do not have enough time left to launch an effective election campaign.
“Thanks to constitutional revisions, the party system has undoubtedly receive a boost,” said Svoik. “However, the time-scale for electioneering is not merely tight, it is phenomenally short.”
On June 20, the president dissolved the Majilis after being asked to do so by the parliamentary majority. The next election was scheduled for 2009, but deputies said they did not want to hold up implementing the constitutional reform until then.
Candidate nominations must now take place from June 22 to July 11 and the campaign itself will only last a month, from July 18 until August 16.
Political scientist Oleg Sidorov says the level of political activity has been very subdued because most parties were unprepared for an early election.
“The election has caught all the party leaders by surprise,” he said.
Small parties lack time and resources to mount a campaign, and have not got their campaign programme and promises ready.
Last month, changes were made to the law to ban political parties from forming election blocs, in what many observers saw was a move to further safeguard Nur Otan’s position.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
