Dushanbe Has Own Agenda for Astana Summit

When Central Asian leaders gather in the Kazak capital this week, they will officially be discussing plans for a joint water and energy consortium. But Tajik president Imomali Rahmonov is likely to come with his own agenda – to mend his government’s troubled relationship with Uzbekistan.



The Tajik and Uzbek leaders will join their Kazak and Kyrgyz counterparts in Astana on September 2.



The Tajiks are certainly concerned about water and energy. But NBCentralAsia analysts suggest the priority will be to discuss issues with Uzbekistan, primarily concerning visa regulations and freight transport between the two countries.



Tajikistan has always been heavily dependent on Tashkent, since its main trade routes to Kazakstan and Russia lie through Uzbekistan. Dushanbe often complains that Tashkent behaves in a high-handed way towards its smaller neighbour.



In particular, Tajikistan wants to try to resolve matters relating to visa requirements, the landmines the Uzbeks have placed around its borders, mutual accusations of espionage and of aiding and abetting terrorists, and other serious problems which have contributed to a marked cooling in the relationship between the two countries.



Uzbekistan’s entry into the Eurasian Economic Union, Eurasec, and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation has given Tajikistan hope that at least some of these issues can now be resolved. By joining these multilateral organisations, Uzbekistan assumes many obligations such as visa-free travel and duty-free freight transport within the Eurasec zone.



However, Uzbekistan’s rapprochement with Russia has not yet translated into closer relations with other Eurasec members, including its nearest neighbours.



Analysts suggest that Uzbekistan may become more open to compromise now that its relations with the West have deteriorated so precipitously. Regular meetings with other heads of state at informal summits and Russia’s increasing role as mediator may also help to nudge the Uzbeks towards a more coordinated policy with neighbours such as Tajikistan.



Dushanbe has been heartened by the example of Kyrgyzstan, which is in a very similar position and which is now enjoying a closer relationship with Tashkent. The Kyrgyz and Uzbeks recently signed an agreement suspending visa requirements for trips of up to 60 days.



The Uzbek ambassador to Dushanbe has already indicated that Tashkent is open to negotiations by announcing that with Uzbek accession to Eurasec, it is envisaged that visa requirements will be made less strict. It is the first time for several years that the Uzbek embassy in Dushanbe has made such a public statement about the bilateral relationship.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)