Doubts Over Kazak Opposition Unity Pledge

Seven large opposition parties that failed to get into the Kazak parliament after the August 2007 elections have started negotiations on forming a united front.



A source from one of the parties told IWPR that representatives of the parties met on February 5 with a view to forming a new umbrella group called the National Coalition for Democratic Reforms.



The parties involved are the National Social Democratic Party, NSDP, the Auyl party, the Social Democrats, Ak Jol, Naghyz Ak Jol, the Communist Party of Kazakstan and the People’s Communist Party of Kazakstan.



According to Central Election Committee data, the parties have membership rolls ranging from 54,000 for the Communists Party to 175,000 for Ak Jol.



The coalition could therefore count on the support of some 680,000 people - more than the 607,000 members of the ruling Nur Otan party, which holds all the seats in the lower house of parliament, the Majilis.



Bulat Abilov, a co-chair of Naghyz Ak Jol, said the new coalition had a range of initiatives in mind.



In an interview with the website Zona.kg, he said that as a protest against alleged fraud in the last election, the parties might recall all their representatives from local electoral commissions, thus denying legitimacy to these bodies.



He said the coalition might also collect signatures for a petition for the dissolution of parliament and early elections.



While supporters of the new coalition talk up their potential, doubters point out that the new umbrella group includes several rival organisations with no history of co-operation.



Indeed, when NSDP leader Jarmakhan Tuyakbay launched the idea of creating a large coalition in December 2007, many people were skeptical, noting the presence of two competing communist parties and of Naghyz Ak Jol and Ak Jol, which, as their names suggest, used to be a single party.



There are also questions about the compatibility of the uncompromising NSDP and a party like Auyl, which has been less confrontational in its dealings with the government.



Some experts argue that a lasting consolidation of such diverse political forces is unlikely.



“It’s difficult to create a coalition when the political parties have different tactics and, most importantly, different goals,” observed political scientist Dosym Satpaev.



“This is not the first attempt to consolidate opposition political forces in this country. Unfortunately, these attempts have never succeeded up till now.”



Others are more optimistic. Eduard Poletaev, another political scientist, said a tactical union between parties that did not win seats in parliament was possible, given that they would not be competing with one another until 2012, when the next elections are due.



Poletaev said the total political domination of Nur Otan was another incentive for opposition parties to close ranks.



“Consolidation is quite possible in the form of a coalition because no valuable prize in the form of elections is yet in sight,” he told IWPR. “As soon as such a prize appears, there could be difficulties.”



Elmira Gabidullina, a member of the board of the Society of Young Professionals of Kazakstan, also believes an opposition coalition is feasible – if that is what the various party leaders want.



“All the parties in Kazakstan are essentially one-man parties,” she said. “Political parties in Kazakstan are friends when their leaders are interested in being friends.”



Gabidullina was more cautious when it came to assessing the impact of these shifting political alliances on the electorate.



“If you ask most people on the street today, they would not be able to tell you any of the differences between the parties,” she maintained.



Poletaev echoes that view, noting that recent surveys had revealed that most people in Kazakstan were unaware of any differences in the various party programmes.



“Many of the programmes of both the opposition and pro-government parties are practically the same,” he said.



“They all stand for a democratic, secular state and so on, which means the devil is in the details that few people will notice.”



However, Poletaev maintained that if the parties failed to unite and pool resources, some of them could expect to disappear from the scene.



“Many Kazak political parties are in financial difficulties today,” he said. “If there are no elections, they have no real possibility of obtaining fresh resources… consolidation into a coalition could give these parties a chance to survive.”



Whether such a political realignment would pose a serious challenge to the ruling party is another matter.



Poletaev notes that in most regions of Kazakstan, local government and Nur Otan’s party organisation are closely intertwined, and often indistinguishable.



“In the regions, there is complete integration between the executive and Nur Otan party activists,” he said. “The chair of the regional branch of Nur Otan is always the akim [governor] of the region, and so on.”



“The ruling party can count on the notorious power of the ‘administrative resource’,” he concluded, referring to the popular term used for government’s capacity to engineer wins for its favoured party.



Gabidullina agreed that shaking Nur Otan’s grip would take more than fine declarations by a host of disparate political groups.



“The potential consolidation of parties will not change the political landscape in Kazakstan,” she predicted.



Daur Dosybiev is an IWPR contributor in Almaty