Could HIV Slow Central Asian Economies?

An international HIV/AIDS conference in Bishkek has voiced fears that an epidemic of the virus could slow economic growth drastically across Central Asia. But some healthcare experts have told NBCentralAsia that the risk is being exaggerated.



Speakers at the September 25 inter-parliamentary meeting on HIV/AIDs in Central Asia and Eastern Europe claimed that if the virus continues to spread, it could lead to a reduction in the pace of economic growth in the region. Uzbekistan, for example, should expect to trim its growth rate predictions by about one-fifth, and Kyrgyzstan and Kazakstan by one-tenth.



Healthcare experts interviewed by NBCentralAsia suggested that these calculations were based on a predicted increase in state spending to combat HIV/AIDS given that treatment is expensive; and also on a forecast reduction in the size of the able-bodied, economically active population.



However, other experts to whom NBCentralAsia spoke argued that such pessimistic forecasts lack credibility. They cited recent World Bank predictions that economic growth rates would be retarded by between 0.5 and one percentage point annually, assuming that HIV infection rates in Central Asia and Eastern Europe remain constant.



The World Bank figures are based on logical assumptions derived from data showing how the infection spreads. UNAIDS, the United Nations agency that deals with HIV/AIDS, estimates a figure of 51,900 HIV-positive people for Central Asia in 2005, twice the number seen in 2003. Figures made public at the Bishkek conference indicated that the figure now stands at 90,000.



Health experts say the HIV/AIDS situation in Central Asia is not as bad as in other parts of the world. With some 60 million people living in the five Central Asian states, a figure of 90,000 means that only 0.15 per cent of the population is HIV-positive.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)