Communist Party Boycotts Elections

The Communist Party’s decision to boycott the forthcoming elections in Kazakstan is merely an attempt to draw attention to itself and will have little effect on the outcome, NBCentralAsia analysts say.



On August 6, Serikbolsyn Abdildin, the chairman of the Communist Party of Kazakstan, CPK, announced that his party would not be taking part in the August 18 parliamentary ballot.



In early July, Abdildin expressed doubt that the new election format will be fair.



Constitutional amendments adopted in May change the electoral system so that members are elected by proportional representation from party lists, instead of from single-seat constituencies. Parliament has also been granted more power and the number of seats raised in the lower house or Majilis from 77 to 107.



On June 20, the president dissolved the Majilis after being asked to do so by the parliamentary majority. The next election was scheduled for 2009, but deputies said they did not want to hold up implementing the constitutional reform until then.



NBCentralAsia experts say the Communist boycott will not have any significant effect on the election contest since the other seven opposition parties will fill the space left by the CPK.



Political analyst Andrei Chebotarev believes the boycott will work in favour of another opposition group, the National Social Democratic Party, by allowing it to capture more of the protest vote.



Chebotarev believes the latter party did not support the CPK boycott because it believes it will do well in the election by itself.



“It would be better for the Communists to join forces with the National Social Democrats to create one united, powerful opposition party,” he said.



As things stand, he said, all that the Communists have achieved is to send out a message that they did not actually expect to win any seats.



Political analyst Eduard Poletaev said a number of polls and forecasts had not placed the CPK among the top three parties in the forthcoming ballot, so its withdrawal will have little effect.



Poletaev said the election campaign had so far proved unexciting and the real behind-the-scenes battle was not about who would win – that is clearly going to be the presidential Nur Otan party – but who will come in second and third, and how many opposition members will get into parliament. He sees the Ak Zhol party and the National Social Democrats vying for second place.



He doubts other opposition forces will join the boycott. The National Social Democrats, for example, have put a lot of effort into their campaign and it would be unwise for them to waste that chance.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)