Commentators Evaluate Possibility of Israeli-Lebanese War

Syrian commentators gave diverging readings of the recent escalation of verbal attacks between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, with some arguing that the Jewish state was preparing for another war and others ruling out the possibility of a near-term military confrontation between the two states.



The Israeli threats could be a prelude to a war against Lebanon, said Eid Abu Seka in an August 11 opinion article in the official newspaper Al-Baath.



Last week, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned that the Lebanese government would be held responsible for any attacks against Israel coming from its territory if Hezbollah was included in the new Lebanese cabinet.



In response, the Islamist group’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, downplayed the possibility of a war in the near future but said that his party was ready for a military confrontation.



Abu Seka said that Israel had been preparing for an armed conflict for some time. The Israeli army had been training its soldiers to win a quick war against the Shia guerrillas and had bought advanced United States-made smart bombs for this purpose, he said.



The author said that Israel was seeking to disrupt the current national unity among the various Lebanese groups and the harmony between the military and Hezbollah.



Israel believed that another war would create chaos in Lebanon and allow its agents in the country to operate freely, he argued.



Another possible motivation would be for Israel to draw more sympathy from the Americans and ease Washington’s demand on the Israelis to freeze the building of Jewish settlements in Palestinian territories.



The author concluded that Israel would not be able to achieve victory in the face of a united Lebanon.



Israel and Hezbollah were engaged in a fierce 33-day war in the summer of 2006 that resulted in the deaths of more than 1,200 Lebanese civilians as well as 160 Israelis, mostly soldiers.



A different opinion piece published by the same newspaper the following day ruled out the possibility of an imminent war.



Michael Awad wrote that Israel had raised the tone of its threats against Lebanon to divert attention from its spiralling internal economic and political crisis.

Awad added that Israel was trying to influence the upcoming formation of a new Lebanese government.



The author argued that Israel realised that it could not challenge Hezbollah’s superiority on the ground and was aware that the group was now “100 times” stronger than before.