Beyond the Ballot Box

On the Afghan front line, officers with the 20,000-strong United States military say they are winning the battle against "remnants" of the Taleban, although they acknowledge the growing violence.

At the United Nations, there is what officials describe as "grave concern" about increased attacks by the Taleban and al-Qaeda.

On the other side, in the clandestine world of the Taleban, the voices of self-proclaimed political spokesman or commanders are heard speaking of a long-term strategy beyond Afghanistan's September 18 election, a jihad or holy war until foreign forces and the government they support are driven out.

US officers view the growing violence as a desperate Taleban effort to disrupt the elections, which they say will not succeed.

The Taleban's self-proclaimed spokesman Latifullah Hakimi demurs, "We never said that we want to disrupt the coming election. It is not important for us…. All claims are fabricated by the press. They want to defame our struggle. We didn't attack elections centres before [during 2004 presidential poll] and we won't start now."

Hakimi’s claim rings somewhat hollow. At least six candidates have been killed, the latest early this month, as well as at least five election workers.

Amid the rhetoric, the death toll inexorably increases - pro-government religious figures, civilians "spying for the US", Taleban fighters, police and members of both foreign and Afghan military.

If the Taleban objective is not limited to disrupting the elections but is designed to regain power and the territory they controlled before Washington's military forced them out in 2001, how close are they to achieving it?

"We have more than 30,000 fighters battling on the ground, with tens of thousands of others supporting them one way or another," Hakimi told IWPR.

Interior ministry spokesman Lutfullah Mashal acknowledged recently in an interview with a US newspaper that at least four districts in Zabul province were under Taleban control during the night.

One local resident from Zabul’s Shajoi district, who had recently shifted to Wardak for security reasons, told IWPR in July, "The government is in charge only in the centre of Zabul province, in Qalat city, but outside the city it is not in control."

Residents of some other areas say the Taleban’s men move freely once darkness falls. There is evidence of this in the distribution of "night letters", leaflets which threaten those who support the government.

Hakimi claims that the Taleban hold extensive territory - most of Zabul and Uruzgan provinces, and parts of Kandahar, Helmand and Kunar. He says the insurgents could take several other provinces if they wished, but then rather undermines this claim by adding that they do not do so in order to avoid face-to-face fighting. They also wish to prevent civilian casualties, he adds.

An estimated 1,100 people - insurgents, Afghan officials, troops and civilians - have been killed in fighting this year, according to media reports.

Confident statements from the US and Afghan military do little to assuage the UN’s alarm at the level of bloodshed.

"The Security Council expresses grave concern about the increased attacks by the Taleban, al-Qaeda and other extremist groups in Afghanistan over the past few months," said Japanese ambassador Kenzo Oshima, chairing the Security Council, on August 23.

Secretary General Kofi Annan's special representative to Afghanistan, Jean Arnault, told that meeting, "Bringing extremist violence and other forms of insecurity under control will remain at the top of the agenda for the government, and for millions of Afghans for whom the most basic dividend of peace - security - remains a distant goal.”

For the future, there is another unknown equation: the Taleban’s level of military equipment. The shooting down of a US Chinook helicopter in late June over Kunar Province, in which 16 American troops died, raised the question as to whether the Taleban was re-equipping with more sophisticated weapons.

The US and Afghan military have said they do not believe the helicopter was hit by a hi-tech missile.

But the same query arose when a Spanish helicopter came down on August 16 in western Herat province, killing 17 Spanish troops. Spanish defence minister Jose Bono said investigators found no evidence that an attack caused the helicopter crash. However, eyewitnesses, injured soldiers and the pilot of a second helicopter which made a forced landing, reportedly said an attack from the ground was responsible.

"We all felt a strong impact, like an explosion, and our helicopter began turning until it fell to the ground," a soldier from the second helicopter was quoted as saying.

The soldier, interviewed by phone by the La Voz de Galicia newspaper, did not give his name. "The others, the ones in front, must have been hit full blast," he was quoted as saying. "When we came down, their aircraft was already burning."

A Taleban commander called Mullah Dadullah claimed responsibility for that downing.

Hakimi insisted that the Taleban brought down the Chinook in Kunar, and said they used new weaponry supplied by their allies. He gave no details either of the equipment or of those who allegedly provided it, though the Kabul government points the finger at extremists across the border in Pakistan for supporting the Taleban.

Afghan defence minister Rahim Wardak dismissed the speculation that sophisticated arms were now being used. But in a recent interview with a local news agency, he concurred with the UN official’s comments about the return of al-Qaeda.

"Intelligence reports indicate al-Qaeda has reviewed its strategy, shifting its focus back to Afghanistan. Terrorists have once again staged a comeback in Afghanistan, from where the menace had spread to other parts of the world," he said.

Attempts at reconciliation with the Taleban seem to have brought little success despite frequent reports in local newspapers of local commanders changing sides and being welcomed back into the government fold.

The former US ambassador to Kabul, Zalmay Khalilzad, and President Hamed Karzai have asked the Taleban several times to join the government side. In May, the president set up a reconciliation commission to bring in dissidents. Only mid-level figures of the ousted regime have turned up so far.

A call by the commission for Taleban leader Mullah Omar and his ally Gulbuddin Hekmatyar to join the mainstream political process was laughed at by Hakimi.

"In our land, we don't need forgiveness from outsiders and we don't obey their orders. It's against this background that the Taleban have stepped up attacks," he said.

Borhan Younus is a freelance correspondent for IWPR.