Is Baghdad Facing Renewed Sectarian Threat?

A spate of attacks largely directed at Shia neighbourhoods and citizens in Baghdad has fuelled concerns that sectarian and political violence is returning to the capital.



While Shias have not been the sole victims of recent outrages in Baghdad, a series of suicide and car bombings have killed and injured hundreds of civilians in Shia areas since April, leaving people nervous that security could be unravelling across the city.



Last week, a bomb exploded in a cafe in a mainly Shia Baghdad neighbourhood as patrons watched a football match, killing nine people.



In late April, a double suicide bombing left at least 60 dead at the Imam Musa al-Kadhim shrine. The blast, the victims of which included Iranian pilgrims, occurred during Friday prayers.



Shia areas have not been the only targets in the capital. Dora – a largely Sunni neighbourhood that is also home to Shias and minority Christians – has also been struck by violence in recent weeks.



But some fear the high number of incidents specifically aimed at Shia targets and in Shia areas are indications that sectarian and political violence is on the rise, threatening stability in Baghdad even as Iraq’s civilian death toll declined in May.



“This environment is really scary,” said Mohamed Ali, a Shia money-changer in the capital. “In the streets, there are whispers of the possibility of more sectarian violence and sectarian political parties taking control.”



Ali al-Allaq, a member of the Shia-led United Iraqi Alliance bloc, said he believes Shia areas are being targeted in order “to stir up a sectarian war”.



Many worry that history could repeat itself, noting that the bombing of the revered Shia al-Askari shrine in Samarra in February 2006 ignited bloody sectarian battles throughout the capital, which led to lasting divisions among many Baghdad residents.



“Iraqi citizens have been burned by sectarian fire,” said Abdulmunam al-Asam, a writer and political analyst. “They fear [sectarianism] will return, especially after the atrocities that were committed under its name.”



Since the onslaught of attacks began, checkpoints have increased in and around Shia areas, particularly in front of mosques.



Other precautionary measures – such as the banning of parking on the streets and thorough inspections of buses – have been enforced for a few days after many of the blasts.



The Shia-led government and Shia parties have said little about the violence.



Although Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki’s office said recently that the authorities will seek to prevent clerics stoking sectarianism, it has provided no details of any plan to do so.



Meanwhile, no one has claimed responsibility for the recent attacks.



A source in the Iraqi military’s Baghdad Operations Command, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said the military believes al-Qaeda and other Sunni fundamentalists carried out the bombings.



He cited intelligence that indicated the vehicles used in car bomb attacks entered Shia neighbourhoods from Al-Radhwaniyah, an area a few kilometres southwest of Baghdad, known as a hotbed of Sunni militants.



The source said security forces believe that cars laden with explosives are still moving freely in the capital.



Allaq also said he thought al-Qaeda and Ba’athists are to blame for the outrages.



However, others have speculated that rather than being a result of pure sectarian hatred, the violence could represent an attempt to influence the outcome of parliamentary elections set for January 2010.



Observers point to an increasingly heated political climate in the country, with Sunnis complaining that the Shia-led government is not prioritising Sunni issues, and Sunni-Shia reconciliation efforts having stalled.



Sheikh Ali Hatim al-Sulaiman, a tribal chieftain and leader in the Sunni-led Awakening Council, said he thought that certain groups which want to pressure the government and to halt reconciliation efforts were to blame for the bombings, although he didn’t identify which ones these might be.



He said he thought it unlikely that al-Qaeda and Sunni armed groups were behind the attacks.



“It’s difficult for al-Qaeda to blow up three booby-trapped cars at the same time in the same place given the fact that it doesn’t have a solid base in Sadr City,” he said, referring to an attack in the sprawling, predominantly Shia quarter of the capital.



Whoever is behind the violence, the impact of Iraq’s sectarian battles continues to run deep for all Baghdad residents.



Othman Ahmed, a Sunni shop owner in a majority Shia neighbourhood, was with his father at a Kadhimiyah hospital when the Musa al-Kadhim shrine was hit.



As bloody bodies were rushed to the hospital, Ahmed said he feared retaliation.



“I immediately called a Shia friend,” he said. “I asked him to come and get us out quickly, because I was afraid that my father and I would be killed if the Shias reacted to the bombing.”



Jasim al-Mandalawi, a mosque preacher loyal to Shia cleric Muqtada al-Sadr, said Shias would not retaliate for attacks on their areas, calling the violence “nothing but a political game among parties or candidates for the upcoming elections”.



Sheikh Jassim al-Mindilawie, an imam in Al-Sajjad mosque in the mainly Shia Al-Shurta Al-Rabia neighbourhood, which has been hit by several car and roadside bombs, agreed.



He speculated that Sunni fundamentalists and Shia militias could be participating in the attacks.



Mindilawie said Shia religious leaders “don’t support a reaction to this political game and don’t want to be dragged into a sectarian conflict again”.



He added, “We call our supporters not to be deceived by these actions. Terrorist attacks should be dealt with by the elected government, not by us.”



Emad al-Shara is an IWPR-trained journalist in Baghdad.