Armenian Premier's Death Leaves Hard-to-Fill Gap

The sudden death of Armenia’s prime minister has removed from the scene a man widely regarded as a stabilising factor on the country’s conflict-ridden political scene.



Andranik Margarian was only 55 when he died of a heart attack on March 25. His death comes on the eve of a parliamentary election.



A former Soviet dissident, Margarian was independent Armenia’s longest-serving prime minister, holding the post for seven years.



In that time, he won a reputation for tolerance in dealing with political opponents.



Journalist and political commentator Aris Kazinian said Margarian came into office in 2000 at a very difficult point, when the country was still suffering from the fallout of an attack that killed eight senior politicians.



“Margarian became a key figure on the Armenian political scene after the terrorist act in parliament in October 1999. The murders of Prime Minister Vazgen Sarkisian and speaker Karen Demirchian created an atmosphere of instability in the country, and an obvious lack of public confidence in the authorities,” said Kazinian.



Margarian replaced Aram Sarkisian, brother of the murdered prime minister, who did not disguise his hostility to President Robert Kocharian in the few months that he held office. Sarkisian is now a leading opposition figure



At the time, Margarian was head of the Unity parliamentary group and had been openly critical of Kocharian, so when the latter appointed him, many regarded it as a suicidal move.



However, Margarian turned out to be not only one of the president’s most loyal allies but also the only Armenian prime minister so far to meet budget targets and oversee double-digit economic growth for several years in a row.



“It’s hard to imagine that the domestic political situation would have progressed so well if either a staunch opposition member or a pro-presidential figure had become prime minister at that difficult time,” said Kazinian. “The circumstances in which Margarian was appointed earned him the epithets ‘compromise premier’ and ‘stabilisation premier’.”



The prime minister died just seven weeks before parliamentary elections scheduled for May 12, in which the governing Republican Party which he headed is a leading contender.



Together with the nationalist Dashnaktsutiun party, the Republican Party forms the governing coalition in parliament. But it faces a new challenge in the elections, as the authorities are also backing another party, the newly-formed Prosperous Armenia, set up by the richest man in the country, Gagik Tsarukian.



Armenian opposition media have dubbed Prosperous Armenia a “political technology project” hatched by the presidential administration with the aim of drawing support from voters disaffected by current government policies.



Tsarukian’s substantial financial investment in the party already appears to be paying off, with opinion polls suggesting it now has the support of 30 per cent of the electorate, even though it was only formed one year ago.



The Republican Party has around the same level of support, meaning that on current projections, neither will win an outright majority in parliament.



“Objectively, the political situation is such that no one political force, including our own party, is capable of taking the country forward on its own,” the head of the Republican Party’s parliamentary group, Galust Saakian, told IWPR.



Facing competition from Prosperous Armenia, the Republican Party last August moved to reinvigorate itself by appointing Defence Minister Serzh Sarkisian as chairman of its ruling council, while Margarian remained party leader.



Sarkisian is a close ally of the president, and the favourite to be nominated as his successor when Kocharian steps down in 2008.



“Our party was never just a one-man party,” Eduard Sharmazanov, press secretary of the Republican Party told IWPR, predicting changes to party policy following the death of Margarian, but no internal tensions.



This is the third time the Republican Party has lost a leader to untimely death. But the party overcame the death of Ashot Navasardian in 1997 and Vazgen Sarkisian’s murder in 1999 and maintained its influence and share of the electorate.



This time, however, things might be different, according to Ararat Zurabian, now an opposition politician and a member of the Armenian National Movement which governed the country from 1991 to 1998. “As this election battle will principally be between the Republican Party and Prosperous Armenia, the prime minister’s death will unbalance the situation.”



The parliamentary election is widely seen as a dress rehearsal for the presidential ballot due in spring 2008.



With Serzh Sarkisian expected to be the official candidate, most observers believe the presidential administration has been biding its time before formally anointing him as Kocharian’s successor.



Margarian’s death now forces a difficult choice on the administration. Appointing Sarkisian as prime minister ahead of the parliamentary poll would make him more vulnerable because of the high-profile nature of the post.



As required by the constitution, Kocharian dissolved the government on March 26, the day after Margarian died. He then had 10 days to appoint a new prime minister after consulting with the parliamentary majority.



These consultations have now taken place. According to reports in the Armenian media, a decision has been made that the new prime minister should come from the Republican Party. That makes it highly likely that Defence Minister Sarkisian will get the job.



Ara Tadevosian is director of the Armenian independent news agency Mediamax.