Armenian Leaders Claim Credit for Harvest

Armenia’s government is claiming the credit for a recovery in agricultural production this year after a disastrous 2010, but opposition activists say the improvement was solely because the weather was better.

Meeting top economic officials in March, President Serzh Sargsyan called for a greater focus on the farming sector. The schemes which the government then launched included importing high-quality seed and offering subsidised loans for farmers. (See Armenian Leaders Place Hopes in Farm Reforms.)

These measures were partly an attempt to restrain prices, which rose sharply after last year’s poor harvest. In spring this year, fruit and vegetable prices were 45 per cent higher than in early 2010.

The government now says its actions have paid off.

“In 2011 agriculture was declared a priority…to halt the 15.7 per cent fall in agricultural production that we saw last year. The work of the last six to seven months shows there have been positive developments,” Prime Minister Sergo Karapetyan said.

According to the State Statistics Agency, agricultural production in the first half of this year was 10.1 per cent higher than the same period of 2010. This was driven by arable production and horticulture, which soared by 27 per cent.

“The results of our programmes have been decent, and the agriculture ministry and the government have therefore decided to continue them,” deputy agriculture minister Armen Poghosyan said. “The harvest yield has turned out to be what we expected, and in some places the results have proved even better than expected.”

Livestock farming was less successful than crop-growing, and remained as depressed as last year, and that may explain why so many farmers remain unhappy with their situation.

“These figures are plucked out of the air, they don’t reflect reality,” Vardan Manukyan, a resident of the village of Hacavan in the central Kotayk region, said.

He has livestock as well as fields planted with potatoes, tomatoes and other vegetables, and said he has seen no increase in his harvest.

The statisticians insist there has been an increase, thanks to better yields rather than a larger area being planted. According to the agriculture ministry, the average wheat yield was 2.8 tons a hectare, up from 2.1 tons last year. Apricot and barley yields have risen also.

Although livestock production figures did not improve, the agriculture ministry says there has been a rise in the number of animals across the country. Fish farming has done better, with this year’s projected production put at some 7,000 ton compared with 5,400 in 2010.

Opposition politicians were quick to dismiss the government’s contribution to the recovery. Vahagn Khachatryan, a member of the Armenian National Congress’s economic commission, said the improvements would have happened anyway.

“Developments in the agricultural sector this year have nothing to do with these reforms; it’s just that climatic conditions this year have been better than they were last year, so for that reason there’s been an insignificant increase in the level of production. This has no connection with the programmes implemented by the state,” he said.

Some villagers agreed with this view, such as Ahgvan Arakelyan of the village of Yeraskhahun in the southern Ararat region, whose melon and pepper crops turned out to be smaller than he expected. He was just pleased that prices were higher this year than last.

“The price offered for tomatoes has risen by eight or nine drams,” he said. “But even then, the important thing for farmers is to be paid straight away when the product is delivered. That’s why many farmers prefer to sell to factories which pay immediately, even if they pay lower prices.”

The increase in production has helped keep inflation down, which will come as a relief to hard-pressed households in Armenia. According to the national statistical agency, consumer prices in June fell by 1.4 per cent compared with May, in July the month-on-month fall was three per cent, while in August it was 0.6 per cent.

According to a statement from Armenia’s central bank, “The fall in prices recorded in July 2011 compared with the previous month is almost entirely explained by a 5.4 per cent fall in food prices, caused by reductions in the prices of fruit and vegetables of 23.3 and 34.9 per cent, respectively.”

Arsen Petrosyan, an economics professor at Yerevan State University, has hands-on experience as well as theoretical insights on the problem, since he has a small plot in the village of Hacavan where he keeps poultry and grows vegetables. For him, the relief caused by falling food prices this summer was only temporary.

“Prices just keep rising, and our salaries stay the same, and since they don’t take any appropriate measures, I decided to get myself a little plot and combine that with my teaching activities,” he said.

Petrosyan said he did not believe agriculture had shown ten per cent growth, since if that were true, it would have pushed down prices far further than happened in reality.

“These numbers are political and bear no relation at all to reality – just look at the market,” he said.

Petrosyan believes that under the present government, “whatever you do, the situation isn’t going to be any good”.

“Judging by today’s prices, we can say with certainty that in February and March next year, prices will rise even more,” he said.

Hrayr Manukyan is a correspondent for 1in.am.