Ambiguity Surrounds Uzbek Leader's Status
Ambiguity Surrounds Uzbek Leader's Status
It seems everyone except the Uzbek authorities has noticed that President Islam Karimov’s term in office expired this week. Political observers say he will exploit the legal ambiguities surrounding his status to stay on in office until an election is held in December – which he will duly win.
Karimov has been at the helm in Uzbekistan continuously since 1989, and was last re-elected in 2000. His current five-year term was extended to seven in 2002, by means of a referendum. January 22, 2007 was seven years to the day since he took office. In short, his constitutional powers have formally expired.
The uncertainty comes from a ruling by the Uzbek parliament, also dating from 2002, according to which elections are held only in December of the year when a president’s term expires. The authorities have yet to issue any public statement that would clarify the situation.
Political commentators say that the ambiguity in the legislation will give Karimov 11 more months in office, after which he will stand for another seven-year term, assuming his health – which is said to be satisfactory – allows him to.
Tashkent-based observer Vladimir Nikitin says Karimov will definitely run for re-election in December. “There will be a choice of candidates, with the current prime minister Shavkat Mirzieev the most likely challenger,” he said.
Muhammad Salih, the leader of the opposition party Erk who ran against Karimov in the 1991 election, believes the president will use his extra months in office to ensure he is elected, and to enlist the support of Moscow and Beijing.
Salih said Karimov recently met political advisors from the Kremlin, which shows Moscow will back him. China, too, is likely to want him to retain his post.
Karimov would only be under threat iof there were domestic tensions which appeared explosive and offered no way out, said Salih.
This may explain why, according to NBCentralAsia’s sources, the authorities in Uzbekistan have begun an unannounced PR campaign with the clear aim of persuading people that the president should stay on.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
Karimov has been at the helm in Uzbekistan continuously since 1989, and was last re-elected in 2000. His current five-year term was extended to seven in 2002, by means of a referendum. January 22, 2007 was seven years to the day since he took office. In short, his constitutional powers have formally expired.
The uncertainty comes from a ruling by the Uzbek parliament, also dating from 2002, according to which elections are held only in December of the year when a president’s term expires. The authorities have yet to issue any public statement that would clarify the situation.
Political commentators say that the ambiguity in the legislation will give Karimov 11 more months in office, after which he will stand for another seven-year term, assuming his health – which is said to be satisfactory – allows him to.
Tashkent-based observer Vladimir Nikitin says Karimov will definitely run for re-election in December. “There will be a choice of candidates, with the current prime minister Shavkat Mirzieev the most likely challenger,” he said.
Muhammad Salih, the leader of the opposition party Erk who ran against Karimov in the 1991 election, believes the president will use his extra months in office to ensure he is elected, and to enlist the support of Moscow and Beijing.
Salih said Karimov recently met political advisors from the Kremlin, which shows Moscow will back him. China, too, is likely to want him to retain his post.
Karimov would only be under threat iof there were domestic tensions which appeared explosive and offered no way out, said Salih.
This may explain why, according to NBCentralAsia’s sources, the authorities in Uzbekistan have begun an unannounced PR campaign with the clear aim of persuading people that the president should stay on.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
