Japan Seeks Central Asia Breakthrough

The Japan’s prime minister upcoming visit to Kazakstan is an attempt to stake out a place in the international race for Central Asia’s energy resources, say analysts.



Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is expected to visit Kazakstan and Uzbekistan on August 28-31. Official sources in Astana and Tashkent have been less than forthcoming about the trip, saying only that Japan is interested in Central Asian stability based on a pragmatic energy policy.



This is the first time such a high-level Japanese official has visited the region, and NBCentralAsia analysts say the main focus of the discussions will be Kazakstan’s potential to supply both oil and uranium to Japan.



Japan is the world’s third largest producer of nuclear energy, and is in dire need of a stable source of uranium to fuel its power stations. Koizumi is expected to lobby for a bilateral deal with Kazakstan, which holds the world’s second largest uranium reserves and is the third largest supplier.



Official sources say Japan consumes approximately 8,000 tons of uranium per year, although it has no reserves of its own.



Experts predict that Kazakstan’s strong position as a producer will put it at a great advantage in the negotiations. KazAtomProm, the state-owned nuclear company, has already announced its intention to increase uranium production to 17,500 tons a year by 2010.



In addition, Japan will also discuss plans to lay an oil pipeline from Kazakstan through Afghanistan to ports on the Indian Ocean, for onward shipment by tankers to Japan. Experts point out that this project would be extremely costly compared to shipping the oil through Russia, but Japan’s dispute with that country over the Southern Kurile Islands make negotiations with Moscow problematic.



Analysts say that Japan, which has established good relations with almost all the countries in the region, has a strong chance of achieving its goals. But it will still face stiff competition from states that are geographically and politically closer to Kazakstan, such as Russia, China, and South Korea.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)