Indian Military Base Looks Unlikely

As Indian newspapers continue to speculate that the country will secure a military base in Tajikistan, analysts in Dushanbe are dismissive of the idea, because regional neighbours would strongly oppose it.



Following President Imomali Rahmonov’s recent visit to Delhi, the Indian press began reporting that there was a plan to set up an airbase at Aini Airport on the outskirts of Dushanbe.



Officials in Tajikistan immediately denied the reports. A defence ministry source told NBCentralAsia that the Indian military has been providing training and technical assistance to the Tajik army for some years, but there is no agreement to set up an airbase.



Analysts interviewed by NBCA believe that Delhi might be interested in having a base, but that the Tajik government would not countenance such an idea – it has too much to lose.



Tajikistan belongs to several regional security groupings including the Collective Security Treaty Organisation and the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, and it would need the approval of other member states - Russia, other former Soviet states, and China – which would be unlikely to give their assent to an Indian military presence in the region. Nor would the idea be favoured by the United States, which is currently promising to invest substantial funds in Tajikistan.



In addition, Tajikistan would run the risk of becoming embroiled in the confrontation between India and Pakistan. Allowing Delhi to land military aircraft on Tajik soil could be seen as an unfriendly act in Islamabad.



Tajikistan currently has great plans to develop its hydroelectric schemes with Pakistani assistance. Once the Rogun and Sangtuda hydropower plants are up and running, the Tajiks will be able to sell electricity to Pakistan, via a new power line that is already at the planning stage.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)