Is the Opposition Changing Tactics?

After an nine-day opposition demonstration ended violently in Kyrgyzstan last week, opposition leaders have promised to switch to peaceful methods of resistance. NBCentralAsia observers say non-violent protest will probably prove more effective in swaying the authorities than mass demonstrations.



On April 23, the leader of the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan, Felix Kulov, said the opposition intends to start peaceful resistance action in a similar vein to the civil disobedience Mahatma Gandhi undertook against British colonial rule in India.



Kulov was speaking the same day that a leading figure in the United Front, Omurbek Suvanaliev, and the co-chairman of the other opposition grouping, the Movement for Reforms, Omurbek Abdrakhmanov, were detained by the Committee for National Security. They were arrested as part of the investigation into what happened on April 19, when police dispersed crowds of protesters in central Bishkek by force following a disturbance.



Political scientist Marat Kazakbaev says it is difficult to predict what form the opposition’s acts of resistance will take, but they will probably try to get the public on side as a more effective tactic against the authorities.



“The opposition will probably turn to the media. It is a common method used in all democratic countries, and I think it will be more effective. Airing opposition propaganda through TV channels would be the most effective method, and forums and roundtables could also be held.”



Political scientist Turat Akimov says that if acts of resistance are directed against local authorities or other state institutions, they could be termed “acts of disobedience”, and government employees might take part in them. But he believes this is unlikely given the low level of “protest activity” in Kyrgyzstan.



Despite Kulov’s intention to switch to peaceful acts of resistance, Omurbek Tekebaev, one of the leaders of the Movement for Reforms, has told NBCentralAsia that demonstrations are still a very effective way of putting pressure on the authorities.



“We can only change our lives for the better through demonstrations,” he said.



Tekebaev said the opposition would continue even though what he called the “active phase” – the April protest – has come to an end.



“We will work on public opinion through press conferences, statements, roundtables, conferences and parliamentary activity, which might culminate in demonstrations and rallies,” he continued.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)