Public Protests Have Little Impact

Sporadic protests about local social and economic issues have become more frequent in Uzbekistan, but they are unlikely to grow into a broader political movement, NBCentralAsia analysts suggest.



From time to time, members of the public stage protests by gathering outside government buildings or blocking roads, especially in winter, when electricity and gas are cut off frequently. Market traders also commonly protest when new restrictive new regulations are introduced by local officials.



The most recent demonstration took place on January 31 and involved at least 100 market traders in Nukus, the capital of Karakalpakstan, an autonomous region in north-western Uzbekistan. The Uznews.net site reported that the traders blocked a main road to express their anger at a proposed redesign of the market.



At about the same time, residents of Karshi in southern Uzbekistan spent several days demonstrating outside the main local government building because of disruptions to gas and electricity supplies.



At a local level, these protests tend to pay off, with the authorities agreeing to meet the demands or at least promise to look for a solution.



Nick Megoran, a British expert on Uzbekistan, suggests that there are grounds to expect more protests. Poverty, low-level government corruption and official macroeconomic policies that stifle private business are all common grievances, but Megoran stresses that this discontent is unlikely to evolve into an organised movement with political demands.



“The state has too many instruments, both formal and informal, to prevent this happening,” he said. “The official obstructions include refusing to grant registration [to a nascent organisation], while informal methods include intimidation to nip a group in the bud before it can solidify into a political bloc capable of challenging the regime.”



An NBCentralAsia commentator in Bukhara, where local businessmen blocked the main road to Tashkent in December 2006, noted that most protesters are seeking a solution to specific economic problems, not systemic political ones. In his view, such protests are unlikely to have a nationwide impact at this stage.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)