Split Sunni Referendum Vote Could Prevent Constitution Veto

Voters in Sunni Arab provinces emerged from the polls with split voting patterns that are likely to prevent a veto of the constitution.

Election and party officials, as well as preliminary poll results, indicated that turnout was higher than expected in the Sunni Arab majority cities of Tikrit, Mosul and Baaqubah, located in the Salahaddin, Ninewa and Diyala provinces, respectively.

For the constitution to fail, a majority of voters in three of Iraq’s 18 provinces must turn it down.

As early results came in, it looked as though the volatile Anbar region in western Iraq and the Salahaddin province north of Baghdad would be the only provinces where more than two-thirds of the voters rejected the constitution.

Ninewa and Diyala both have substantial Sunni Arab communities, and in theory either could have been the third province delivering a no vote, but as results emerge, that is looking increasingly unlikely.

In Diyala, northeast of Baghdad, provincial election commission chief Amir Latif al-Yahia called the vote "a success”.

“It was joyful, like a wedding," he added.

Farid Ayar, a spokesman for the Independent Election Commission of Iraq, IECI, told IWPR that preliminary results indicated 54 per cent of the voters in Diyala had voted in favour of the constitution, while 46 per cent rejected it.

He said the commission would not officially release figures for the vote until October 20.

Hafez al-Jabouri, deputy governor of Diyala and a member of the Iraqi Islamic Party, said 65 per cent of registered voters cast their ballots in the province.

Some media reported that voter turnout in Diyala was approximately 57 per cent. While election officials in some regions reported voter turnout estimates and preliminary results to IWPR, others were unwilling to release the information

The Iraqi Islamic Party is the major political party in Diyala, and had a “direct influence on the Sunni people” in the ballot, said Jabouri.

“If it were not for the Iraqi Islamic Party’s endorsement of the constitution, turnout in this province would not have been this high,” he said, indicating the way he thought the vote had gone.

The Islamic Party came on board the yes campaign following last-minute amendments allowing Iraq’s National Assembly to change the constitution after the referendum is over. But most other Sunni Arab leaders remained opposed to the document.

“The party knows what the constitution contains, and it also knows our interests,” said Hazim al-Ubedi, a 24-year-old taxi driver.

Because the constitution can be amended subsequently, “there is no reason to vote no", he said.

In Ninewa province, turnout was 69 per cent, provincial electoral commission director Dhahair al-Jabouri reported. He did not predict an outcome, but there were reports that 78 per cent in the province voted in favour of the constitution.

Mosul, Iraq’s third-largest city and Ninewa’s capital, is a predominantly Arab city, which has a mixed population of Arabs, Kurds, Turkoman, Assyrians and others in its eastern sector. Mosul, about 400 kilometres northwest of Baghdad, is a militant stronghold.

Bisam Khamu, 36, a tailor from the Christian minority who lives in the al-Bakir neighbourhood of Mosul, said he and his family supported the constitution “because we want stability. Every day, we say stability will be restored tomorrow and things will get better, but they get much worse. We hope it will be better after the constitution is endorsed, because it will bring about a stable permanent government”.

Nashat Omer, 37, a doctor who lives in the Muharibin neighbourhood on the western side of the city, said people who had voted in favour for the constitution would not necessarily be open about it, “They are afraid [of insurgent reprisals]. You can find people who say they voted no, but who actually voted yes and won’t admit to it.”

Nurhan Mohammed Said, 27, a Turkoman civil servant who lives in Rashidia on the outskirts of Mosul, expressed cynicism that the ballot would really change anything.

“Whether we voted yes or no, it doesn’t change anything because the decision was already made, and there is one result,” he said. “If we vote in favour, then the American agenda will prevail. If we vote against, it will [keep] the American project in Iraq for a certain time."

In Sunni Arab areas of Baghdad, such as al-Adhamiyyah, many voters also said they rejected the constitution. No voter turnout estimates were available for the capital.

"I don't know anything about the constitution, so why should I say yes?" asked Abdullah Khattab, a 44-year-old primary school teacher.

"I voted against this constitution because it aims to fragment Iraq, and it is illegitimate," said Zuhair Abdul-Rahman, a 40-year-old civil servant from al-Adhamiyyah.

In Saddam Hussein’s home town of Tikrit, few voters wavered in their decision to vote against the constitution. Eighty per cent of voters in Tikrit’s Salahaddin province voted against the constitution, according to IECI spokesman Ayar. Turnout was between 80 and 85 per cent.

"If we vote yes for the constitution, then it means we sentence Saddam to death,” said Nawaf Abdullah al-Tikrit, 47, a car dealer from the Tikrit’s Sheshin quarter. “That won't happen, because no one better than Saddam is going to come [to power]."

Hisham Sayir, 40, was a member of the security forces under the former Iraqi regime. He said that in a country under occupation, “it’s impossible to endorse any constitution”.

"This constitution is Iranian and American and has not been written by Iraqi hands,” he argued. “Otherwise how they could they [complete the draft] in four months? Why didn’t it take longer?"

One prominent tribal leader in Tikrit who asked not to be named accused the government of trying to weaken Sunni Arabs by launching counter-insurgency offensives together with US forces during the referendum.

In his view, the draft constitution favours other groups such as Shias and Kurds over Sunnis.

“This is their constitution,” he said, “not ours."

Nasir Kadim is an IWPR trainee journalist in Baghdad; Waid Ibrahim is an IWPR trainee in Mosul; and Jasim al-Sabawi is an IWPR trainee in Haweeja, Kirkuk. With additional reporting from IWPR trainee journalist Zainab Naji in Baghdad.