Opposition Gears up for April Protests

As the Kyrgyz opposition prepares to stage a new round of street protests in early April, NBCentralAsia political observers fear that unless the opposition and the authorities can start negotiating, the stand-off could grow into a serious civil clash.



On March 12, the United Front for a Worthy Future for Kyrgyzstan headed by former Prime Minister Felix Kulov announced that it wouldl launch a series of rallies in the regions from April 9, and in Bishkek on April 11, to demand constitutional reform and an early presidential election.



The Movement for Reforms, a longer-standing opposition group, is expected to hold its own protests in early April. Its leaders announced last week that the authorities have until April 10 to carry out reforms. The movement is focusing on constitutional reform, but unlike the United Front it says it will not demand President Kurmanbek Bakiev’s resignation if radical changes are implemented.



“If a new version of the constitution is proposed and plans for constitutional reform are made clear, the protests will not take place,” Kubatbek Baibolov, one of the movement’s leaders, told NBCentralAsia.



Last November, mass demonstrations led by the Movement for Reforms forced President Bakiev to approve constitutional changes that curbed his powers. But in December the Kyrgyz parliament – faced with the threat of dissolution – voted to amend the constitution again, restoring many of Bakiev’s powers.



The United Front is insisting that Bakiev’s resign, arguing that the president lost legitimacy when he failed to uphold the "tandem", the alliance he concluded with Kulov prior to a presidential election in summer 2005.



In January, after parliament had twice rejected his nomination of Felix Kulov for prime minister, President Bakiev decided not to persist, and proposed Azim Isabekov instead. The departure of Kulov, who had resigned on December 19 but carried on in a caretaker role, marked the end of the “tandem”.



On February 14, Kulov announced he was joining the opposition.



Most NBCentralAsia observers agree that the forthcoming protests will differ from previous ones in that the opposition has been galvanised by Kulov’s presence, and they say it has become harder to predict what either side in the confrontation will do.



Tamerlan Ibraimov, director of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies, noted that last November’s street protests have given the opposition more confidence, since it showed it could force the authorities to listen to its demands, and even give in to them, by mounting mass protests.



He added that if the authorities use force this time, the opposition will gain even more public support.



“The extent of public support for the protests will depend on whether the authorities treat the protesters in an appropriate way and refrain from either provoking them or using force,” he said.



According to political scientist Alexander Knyazev, if force is used against the demonstrators, “the opposition may respond in kind, leading to a confrontation with unpredictable consequences, perhaps even armed clashes”.



Given this situation, some observers say that international organisations should be more actively involved in promoting a constructive dialogue.



“We should not underestimate the current political situation,” said Toktogul Kakchekeev, a political scientist and spokesman for the prosecutor general’s office. “The two sides may not listen to one another, so it would make sense to get international organisations involved in establishing a dialogue between the authorities and the opposition.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)