Analysts Predict Grain Shortfall

Reports coming out of Turkmenistan suggest there will be a shortfall in grain availability that could lead to difficulties over the winter, NBCentralAsia observers say.



To mark national Grain Day on July 20, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov offered the customary congratulations to farmers, but did not give a figure for the size of the harvest.



Since the authorities always announce harvest figures, generally far exceeding estimates by independent observers, an analyst in Ashgabat said the omission strongly suggests that this year’s target was missed.



The authorities had projected a figure of 1.8 million tons for this year which they said would be sufficient to ensure food security.



Last year’s harvest was put at 1.2 million tons by the official statistics, or closer to one million according to independent estimates



In 2005, the United States Department of Agriculture put Turkmenistan’s annual domestic demand at 2.5 million tons of grain.



At a July 21 cabinet meeting, Turkmenistan’s minister of economics and development, Gurbanmyrat Gurbanmyradov, said the authorities were developing a food strategy for 2008-2012 which would included estimates of the demand for livestock, vegetables and flour products.



The government started looking at food supply issues when the availability of flour became erratic because of rising world prices and reduced exports by the countries from which Turkmenistan buys.



The main suppliers of wheat are Kazakstan and Russia.



In Turkmenistan’s arid climate, the cereals that are grown are suitable mainly for livestock fodder rather than human consumption. Thus, even when production levels are high, the country still has to import.



NBCentralAsia observers in various regions of the country say the supply difficulties are apparent from rising prices at the markets, queues outside bakeries and the poor quality of bread.



“Bread is almost always available in shops in [the capital] Ashgabat, but in regional centres like Turkmenabat, Dashoguz and Mary it doesn’t stay long on the shelves,” said one observer. “Cheap [brown] loafs costing 1,000 manat [seven US cents] sell particularly fast. When these sell out, people have to buy flatbread and white loafs that cost twice as much.”



Everywhere except Ashgabat, flour is distributed under a ration-card system, allowing four to six kilograms a month for each family member. Under this system, first-grade flour made in Turkmenistan sells at 3,000 manats a kilogram.



At the markets and private shops, most of the flour sold is of Russian or Kazak origin and of superior quality, retailing selling at 15,000 manats a kilogram. Only the better-off can afford these kinds of prices.



“Personally, I prefer Russian flour,” said an Ashgabat housewife. “I buy a maximum of five kilos, which lasts our family of two several months. However, a family with lots of children can’t really afford it; it’s too expensive.”



In rural areas of Turkmenistan, bread is traditionally baked at home. Families buy 50-kilo sacks of flour which last them four to six weeks.



Commentators note that people in the countryside are pessimistic that things will get better this autumn and winter, and many farmers are making their own arrangements as they are not certain the government will be able to stave off possible shortages.



One observer in the northern Dashoguz region said, “People are even sowing their gardens and allotments with wheat.”



(NBCentralAsia is an IWPR-funded project to create a multilingual news analysis and comment service for Central Asia, drawing on the expertise of a broad range of political observers across the region. The project ran from August 2006 to September 2007, covering all five regional states. With new funding, the service is resuming, covering only Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan for the moment.)