Moldova: How Social Networks Amplify Anti-EU Narratives
An organised campaign of pro-Russian propaganda interests could have a major outcome on landmark referendum.
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As Moldova prepares for its pivotal referendum on EU accession, experts warn that a coordinated campaign of online disinformation may significantly impact the country’s European course.
Anti-EU narratives have swept the online environment ahead of the October 20 vote, when citizens will be asked if they support amending the constitution in order to join the EU. In a presidential vote held the same day, Moldovans will also face a choice between pro-European and pro-Russia candidates.
Both votes are being held in a complex landscape marked by ongoing tensions between pro-European and pro-Russian political forces. Entities linked to Russian interests are vehemently contesting the process, with social media proving a key battleground. The Russian state is thought to be devoting tens of millions of dollars to this purpose.
Over half of Moldovans - 53.6 per cent - cite the internet as their primary source of information, with nearly 40 per cent considering it the most trustworthy, according to the latest Public Opinion Barometer.
This has prepared the ground for an onslaught of propaganda in an attempt to influence public opinion. This could have a major outcome on the referendum turnout, in particular.
The TV channels and the dozens of websites previously banned by authorities for posing a threat to state information security have all transitioned to an online presence on social media. A whole host of politicians, influencers and anonymous accounts also pursue similar agendas.
A recent report by the pre-election evaluation mission of the National Democratic Institute noted that Russia had stepped up disinformation operations in Moldova since the start of the full-scale invasion of neighbouring Ukraine.
“Experts estimate that for the 2023 local elections alone, Russia has deployed the equivalent of 50 million US dollars for disinformation and hybrid warfare efforts in Moldova,” the report read. “In addition to supporting pro-Russian political forces, the funds were directed to pro-Russian media, influencers and Telegram channels.
Meanwhile, an under-resourced, independent press struggles to keep up, and state-level efforts at strategic communication remain in their infancy.
Key Narratives
Telegram is a case in point. At the start of the election campaign, the Independent Journalism Center (IJC) began tracking how anti-EU sentiment had been gaining a foothold on multiple Moldovan Telegram channels, many of them with audiences of tens of thousands of followers.
Its analysis found that “messages are aimed at discrediting the poll, denigrating the government and the European Union, misinforming about the possible consequences of the October 20 vote and thus discouraging citizens from decision-making”.
Among the main narratives identified on these dedicated anti-EU channels were threats that integration would mean being drawn into international conflicts.
"Where there is the EU, there is NATO,” declared one statement. “And with them come war, chaos and death to the people."
Then there was the supposed impact on the Moldovan economy.
"Since 2005, one third of all European farms have been closed because of EU rules,” claimed one post. “The Moldovan agricultural market will simply disappear. Protect our farmers - say NO on October 20!"
Other narratives included looming dangers to Christianity and traditional values.
"A major attack on the Metropolitan of the Orthodox Church of Moldova is planned for this fall,” read one message. “This will happen after the elections, if pro-European forces win."
Another warned of the imminent introduction of "LGBT propaganda” which would mean the “distortion of world and national history, destruction of the historical memory of Moldovans…and this negatively affects national identity and patriotism! This is how we are losing our young generation and may lose the country!"
An earlier Telegram monitoring carried out between April-August 2024 by Expert Forum and WatchDog.MD Community revealed specific narratives focused on discrediting the constitutional referendum, including that it violated Moldovan law and was a presidential election fraud scheme with no legitimacy.
"These are old narratives, absolutely all old Russian style, but much more intensely repetitive, detailed, with new accents and previously unheard combinations - and much more present on TikTok, Facebook and Telegram,” said Valeriu Pașa, chairman of the WatchDog.MD Community. “We have seen how the same Telegram channels now have three to four times as many manipulative posts about the EU compared to the same period of time a year ago.”
Until recently, Moldovan TV channels often broadcast programmes directly from Russia, so this content has long been part of many citizens’ informational space.
Likely Effects
The key factor in validating the referendum is voter turnout, which must reach at least one-third of the electorate. In this context, the narratives spread on social networks could play a crucial role.
"Polls show that about a third of respondents do not intend to participate in the referendum,” said Mihai Mogâldea, deputy director of the Institute for European Policies and Reforms (IPRE). “Given that the turnout rate in the first round of the 2020 presidential elections was 48 per cent, if a third of this electorate does not participate in the referendum, the risk of invalidating it is real. Whether the objective of convincing the pro-European electorate to boycott the referendum will be achieved, we will see, depending on the referendum results. What is certain is that, through the huge amount of money invested in promoting these narratives online, Russian-affiliated propagandists can reach the vast majority of the voters."
Pașa emphasised that polls indicated that while 63 per cent of Moldovans said they support EU membership, only 54 per cent said they would actually go to the polls and vote yes.
“That means that disinformation and propaganda not only makes some citizens against EU membership, but even persuades some of those who want European integration not to do one basic thing - to vote pro. We know that there will be a majority at the referendum, but even with 30 per cent of the citizens against, the situation is sad,” he continued, adding, “Let's not be complacent if the referendum passes. Russia will never give up its attempts to control Moldova. Nor will propaganda and manipulation disappear.”
Experts agree that the fundamental solution to disinformation was providing education and media literacy.
Mogâldea added that a short-term solution could be to combat these narratives through communication campaigns involving the authorities, opinion leaders and the media.
"In addition, the authorities need to work more actively on identifying and punishing those violating laws, especially on the provisions related to information security, illicit financing and treason,” he said.
Pașa emphasised the importance of a strong independent press.
"We cannot have national television with [only] a few reporters, without qualified producers, without well-paid and professional editors, without robust editorial policies and expect the press to fully realise its mission to bring the truth on complex issues into every home," he continued.
As for strategic communication, he said that the state as an institution needed to promote its own narratives “based on truth and democratic values”.
“We need a lot of topics that generate a broad consensus in society - about the past and the present, about what is definitely good and what is definitely bad for the Republic of Moldova.”
This publication was prepared under the “Countering Disinformation in Moldova Project”, implemented with the support of the United Kingdom's Conflict, Stability and Security Fund (CSSF).
