Why is Defence Spending Going Up?

A 12 per cent increase in Uzbekistan’s defence budget this year is not so much a reaction to external military threats as a reflection of domestic political concerns and regional instability, commentators say.



Figures released last week indicate that at 900 million US dollars, the 2007 defence budget is 100 million higher than last year. Uzbekistan’s defence spending is the equivalent of five per cent of gross domestic product, a higher proportion than that of any other former Soviet republic.



Avez Baburov, a NBCentralAsia political expert, argues that Uzbekistan does not face the kind of grave external threats that would justify such an increase in defence spending.



“Afghanistan and the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan have been the main headaches [for Tashkent], but they were eliminated by the US- and NATO-led coalition forces,” said Baburov. “There is thus no need for Uzbekistan to increase defence expenditure.”



In Baburov’s view, the rise in military spending has been driven by domestic political considerations, especially since President Islam Karimov’s constitutional term in office expired on January 22. “Any dictatorship relies on its army,” said the analyst.



A former employee of an international organisation that was forced to leave Uzbekistan after the Andijan violence of May 2005 said in an interview with NBCentralAsia that the government had also been prompted to act by recent political shifts in other parts of Central Asia.



“I don’t think there’s a need to boost defence spending. The money would have been better spent on providing rural employment,” she said. “The government’s motives are clear - it is concerned about the death of [Turkmen president] Saparmurat Niyazov and the ongoing tensions about constitutional reform in Kyrgyzstan.”



A foreign expert on security issues, who did not want to be named, said the spending boost would affect the wider region. “Uzbekistan’s neighbours may see this spending as a threat to their own security,” he said. “They too will increase their defence capacity. Then the state which first began increasing its military power will try to get ahead of its neighbours in the race. Thus, the more you spend on security, the less secure you feel.”



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)