Changing of Guard in Kabardino-Balkaria

It was the end of an era on September 28 when Arsen Kanokov, a successful Moscow businessman, took over the presidency of Kabardino-Balkaria from Valery Kokov, the wily political operator who dominated the republic for almost 15 years.

But some observers question whether Kanokov will be able to fill the place left by 66-year-old Kokov, who received his political education in the ruthless Soviet system and was seen as a stabilising factor in this fractious North Caucasus republic.

Thanks to Kokov, some believe, ethnic separatism ceased to be a viable threat in the early Nineties and until recently, radical Islam was kept under control.

Others, however, say the new president is just the man to tackle the republic’s many problems.

“Kanokov is a smart guy and a terrific manager,” said Valery Kurshev, a local business leader. “He understands perfectly well what he’s taking on - that there’s practically no economy in the republic and that he has to start from zero.

“I am sure that his ambitions will go no further than trying to change things and leaving his mark on society.”

Just as Kokov’s resignation came as little surprise following reports he was suffering from an unidentified illness, Kanokov’s appointment was no shock, either.

He is a protégé of the powerful Dmitry Kozak, the Russian presidential envoy for the Southern Russia Federal District. Kanokov was nominated by Kozak, and the republic’s parliament then voted unanimously to approve him along with the current prime minister, Gennady Gubin.

"Kanokov is Dmitry Kozak's creation,” a Russian government source told IWPR. [Kozak] thinks he’s a talented manager who has successfully been doing business for a long time, enjoys a high standing and respect in the republic, and will be able to get it out of its [present] crisis."

Kanokov, 48, was born in the republic and is an ethnic Kabardin – the majority group in the republic, making up close to 50 per cent of the population. In the early Nineties, he started the Sindika company in Moscow, which now owns shopping centres and an advertising agency.

He was elected to Russia’s State Duma as a member of Vladimir Zhirinovsky’s ultra-right Liberal Democratic Party in 2003, but a year later he jumped ship to the pro-Kremlin United Russia. Though most of his money is concentrated in the Russian capital, he spends generously at home, sponsoring the construction of a mosque in the capital Nalchik and, for balance, an Orthodox Russian cathedral.

Kanokov will have his hands full from his first day in office. In the two years since rumours of Kokov’s illness first started circulating, the republic has become less and less stable. Many criticised the ex-president’s response, calling him a typical authoritarian leader who cracked down on opposition with strong backing from the Kremlin.

In Nalchik, police have stormed buildings occupied by Islamic radicals, and unknown assailants have attacked police and military patrols. At the same time, human rights activists say police have illegally rounded up those they suspect of extremism. Some of the detainees have been beaten and there have been reports of at least one person killed.

Tensions are also high with the republic’s other titular ethnic group, the Balkars, who account for about ten per cent of the population.

Thousands of Balkars have demonstrated in recent months over plans to redraw district boundary lines, which they fear will prejudice their community’s position.

The republic’s economy is also floundering. Some experts put unemployment at 30 per cent. The Russian central government subsidises 80 per cent of the budget, and its arrears this year reached 1.5 billion roubles (50 million US dollars). As a result, agriculture, transport, housing and the police are all under-financed.

The republic also owes more than three billion roubles (100 million dollars) in gas and electricity debts.

Corruption, say many, is rampant.

Developments in Kabardino-Balkaria are significant for the rest of the region. The republic is strategically placed in the centre of the North Caucasus, wedged between Karachai-Cherkessia and North Ossetia, and is just 50 kilometres from Chechnya at its closest point.

Albert Kazharov, a lawyer and former presidential candidate, said, "In order to put the republic's effectively moribund economy back to work, we must provide major investment on the one hand and fight corruption, on the other.”

Kazharov noted that, in spite of a number of ambitious projects, corruption “has eaten everything up like a hungry predator in the decaying Nalchik Zoo”.

Others are concerned by what they see as a potentially explosive situation among Muslims, who comprise the majority in the republic.

Zaur Naloyev, a well-known local writer and long-time political activist, warns that the government’s recent policy of closing down mosques, and what he sees as the repression of ordinary Muslims, will lead to religious radicalism.

“This will work to the advantage of forces that are trying to use Islam for their own political goals," he told IWPR.

Naloyev is also worried about the changes to the republic’s district borders, which he says are being carried out without consulting local communities.

"Certain forces are trying to transform these issues into problems in interethnic relations. This is indeed dangerous,” he said.

Others, however, think that Kanokov will merely follow the policies Kokov was pursuing in his final months, which they say were leading the republic further down the path to disaster.

A key indication of this is whether he chooses to preserve Kokov’s political team. Some believe that this is already happening as Gubin is staying on.

"Gennady Gubin should not remain as the republic's prime minister on any account,” said Safudin Elmesov, a leading Kabardino-Balkaria economist. “If he remains, many key figures linked to the Kokov regime may also remain in power.

“In this case, any attempts to improve the social and economic situation will be doomed to failure."

Expectations for the new president are nevertheless high.

Aleksandr Ordashev, leader of the Kabardino-Balkarian branch of the Republican Party, a newly-formed liberal party in opposition to Vladimir Putin’s government, told IWPR, "The public is expecting major changes. People hope that they will be able to live well and earn a decent wage.

“Many anticipate an all-out battle against corruption, that police chiefs will be replaced, and there will be an overhaul of all parts of the government. Popular support is [Kanokov’s] most valuable resource, and he should make as much use of it as possible.”

Valery Khatazhukov is the director of the Human Rights Centre in Nalchik.