Will New Cabinet Differ From the Old One?

NBCentralAsia commentators have mixed opinions about whether there will be radical changes to the new cabinet that by law has to be formed in the wake of the recent presidential election.



President Imomali Rahmonov is due to be inaugurated on November 18, and under the Tajik constitution, once he is formally in office, the current cabinet has to resign to make way for a new one.



Staff in the key government ministries and departments are awaiting the announcement of a new cabinet with trepidation. A source in government told NBCentralAsia that the uncertainty has led some officials to sink into inertia.



NBCentralAsia has been asking political commentators based in Tajikistan whether they think the changes in the line-up will be significant. Zafar Saidov, director of the national news agency Khovar, believes there will be changes to both personnel and structure, which will depend on each case how individuals have performed to date.



Saidov predicts between 50 and 80 per cent of the faces in the cabinet will change. And he also sees some structural changes happening as the governance system is refined.



By contrast, Shokirjon Hakimov, deputy head of the opposition Social-Democratic Party, expect no radical changes. “Since the president is simultaneously in charge of the executive, the main selection and appointment will be loyalty and regional affiliation,” he told NBCentralAsia.



Suhrob Sharipov, who heads the Strategic Studies Centre, which comes under the aegis of the presidential administration, insists that every minister who gets appointed will have to possess good organisational and management skills, and be able to implement government policies in his or her area of responsibility.



Sharipov believes the economic ministries will be strengthened as the next seven years should see deeper reforms, changes and improvements to Tajikistan’s economic structure, and a better standard of living for the population.



Hikmatullo Saifullozoda, who heads the Islamic Rebirth Party’s analytical unit, suggests that there will be no earth-shaking changes to staffing in the near future. He predicts a reshuffle rather than the total clearout that is needed.



Saifullozoda recommended that President Rahmonov reserve a 30 per cent quota of posts for the opposition. This condition, designed to maintain stability, was agreed at the negotiations which ended the Tajik civil war in 1997. He argues that the deal has not been properly honoured for the last six years.



A lot of speculation surrounds the post of prime minister, since there is little doubt that the incumbent Akil Akilov will step down. Rahmonov recently told the cabinet that it contained many individuals of retirement age who had been in place since the early Nineties. Analysts believe this reason will be cited for removing both Akilov and Foreign Minister Talbak Nazarov.



Since Rahmonov hails from southern Tajikistan, the post of prime minister has traditionally gone to a northerner. NBCentralAsia analysts believe this unspoken rule, which has been observed for a decade and a half, will continue to apply.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)