Will Government Think-Tank Improve Policymaking?

Turkmenistan is planning to establish an official think-tank centre to advise the government on economic policy, but NBCentralAsia experts say it will be a pointless institution unless it gets access to accurate data and is allowed to be both objective and open.



At a cabinet meeting on July 19, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov said Turkmenistan needed an academic research institute for strategic planning which would analyse the economic situation and draw up recommendations for the government.



The proposed institute would also help the government implement major reforms to the way the country is administered.



Turkmenistan has not previously had such an institution. Statistics are a closely-guarded secret, and until the late president Saparmurat Niazov died in December, the government’s role was simply to carry out his orders.



NBCentralAsia observers say that the value of the new strategic studies centre will depend on whether it can obtain accurate information, publicise the results of its analysis and offer recommendations that are be listened to.



One economics expert says that institution will have to be given access to reliable figures if it is to provide the government with useful analysis on current and future economic trends. The government will have to disclose the truth about important economic indicators such as inflation, the exchange rate, unemployment, gas prices, the effect of global trends, and other data sets that have never been published before.



“The research institute will only be effective if the authorities are interested in receiving realistic analysis and good recommendations,” said the economist. “If they aren’t, it will just be another pointless piece of public relations, a useless institution.”



Another NBCentralAsia commentator in Ashgabat said the think-tank will have to have the freedom to present objective findings in a public manner if it is to drive decision-making change..



“It is vital that the authorities are prepared not only to consider strategic planning for the future, but also to take on board information about mistakes and follow recommendations on how to correct them,” said the observer. “Right now, it isn’t clear that they are ready to do this, and that will be the main psychological barrier for the institution.”



Another observer in Turkmenistan says it is pointless hoping for a transparent and objective think-tank in a country where even the most harmless information is classified as a state secret.



“Why do we need such an institution if openness and objectivity are out of the question, when all we have is lies, mistrust and distorted or hushed-up information?” asked the observer.



It is not even clear whether Turkmenistan has enough skilled economists to staff the new research centre, since its academic capacity was drained during the Niazov years. Some people were arrested and are still in jail, while many of those on the outside were sacked for “disloyalty” to the regime and are barred from working.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)