Warnings Over Tunisia Election Delay

Elements of former dictator’s regime blamed for pushing for postponement to October.

Fears are growing in Tunisia that the country’s transition to democracy may be jeopardised if elections slated for July 24 are delayed by pressure from remnants of the country’s former regime.

This week, Tunisia's electoral commission proposed postponing the polls to October 16 due to “technical and logistical reasons”, according to
Yadh Ben Achour, president of the national commission for political reform.

Tunisian prime minister Beji Caid Sebsi has also cautioned that the elections – which will elect a 260-member body to establish a new constitution - might be delayed.

While the government and electoral commission blame practical issues including insufficient time to register some seven million voters, many are warning that elements of the regime of former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali are behind the possible delay.

“There are forces putting pressure on the current president and prime minister to push for what they want, which is very problematic,” said Mokhtar Yahiaoui, a human rights activist and a member of the commission responsible for planning the elections. “These people are trying to postpone the elections – but this would be very bad for the country.”

“Some say that people from the former regime are behind all these things to gain time to erase the traces of their crimes,” said journalist Walid Besbes, the communications director of leading broadcaster Radio Jawhara, adding that other theories included interference by members of Ben Ali’s now banned Constitutional Democratic Rally, RCD, or the family of the former dictator himself.

“Some political parties wanted to delay the elections of July 24 some new small parties, including the extreme left,” he continued.
Indeed, the communist party president Hamma Hammami told Reuters this week, “Since the beginning, we have been demanding an election date in October. Today we find the proposal of October 16 very logical.

“This date gives political parties the opportunity to present their programmes and gives the Tunisian people the chance to get to know the different opposition parties.”

But the consensus is that a delay - which would have to be until October due to the month-long Ramadan festival in August – would set a worrying precedent, and highlight the fact that the transitional government has no mandate.

The July 24 date would certainly benefit some of the longer-established political groupings, such as the Al-Nadha Islamic party.
Although banned under Ben Ali and considered relatively moderate by regional experts, an-Nadha is still mooted to win up to a quarter of the national vote.

Al-Nadha secretary-general Hamadi Jebali warned that “some are trying to manufacture chaos so as to push people to believe the message that ‘if you want democracy, you will get chaos – so it’s better to opt for security under a dictator.’

“These forces are remnants of the people in power. The dictator is gone but some elements of the dictatorial system remain in place. They are people in the police, in the administration of the state and remnants of the former ruling party, even though it’s banned.

“Together with some in the business community, who grew wealthy under the old regime and were closely linked to them, these make up a force with the potential to represent a threat to the revolution.”

The only way to prevent this, he argued, was through prompt elections to “establish a legitimate democratic constitutional assembly – that’s the first step and has to be the cornerstone of true democracy”.

“Almost no-one has an interest in a political vacuum,” Nicolas Poiullard, Tunisia analyst for the International Crisis Group, said. “Officially, all of society says that the July 24 date will be kept. Privately, people acknowledge it is more difficult.”

As for the rumours that some members of the former establishment were trying to postpone the elections, Poiullard said that while he remained unconvinced by “conspiracy theories, clearly some parts of the former regime – maybe the security apparatus including the police – have been displaying strange behaviour. There was recent violence by the police towards protesters.”

Demonstrations have indeed continued ever since the January revolution which toppled Ben Ali, with Tunisians calling for faster reforms and action to address the country’s financial woes. Unrest in neighbouring Libya has also had an economic and security impact on Tunisia.

Fethi Touzri, a doctor and a veteran Tunisian human rights activist, said that the continued speculation over the elections is fueling the unrest which, in turn, plays into the hands of those who want them delayed.

“The media and the politicians endlessly discuss this [election] delay,” he said. “I think what is bad is the uncertainty and the suspicion that emerges from this, and I think there are some elements who want to delay the election, although it is not clear who, by creating security situations which dictate that we cannot hold them.

“In my opinion, elections are necessary to send a clear message that the country is emerging after a transitional period. If we don’t create an environment where we can organise free, fair and transparent elections, we cannot go forward.”

Agreeing with this analysis, Yahiaoui added, “Because the outcome is not known, many people are afraid and feel edgy. There is uncertainty, and some people are trying to create chaos. Nothing is guaranteed, unlike before when the dictatorship would ensure nothing changed.”

With some 70 parties registered to take part in the elections – and a similar number having been rejected on a variety of technical issues – he said that “the game has changed radically. This will be the first ever election in Tunisia that the government won’t control”.

Daniella Peled is an IWPR editor in London.