Uzbeks Consult Kremlin on Kyrgyzstan

Uzbek president Islam Karimov’s recent visit to Moscow reflects a determination to improve ties with Russia, according to NBCentralAsia observers.

Plans for Karimov’s visit on April 19-20 were made before the recent unrest in Kyrgyzstan, but the issue clearly took precedence in his talks with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev

Mass demonstrations on April 6-7 in Uzbekistan’s neighbour sparked by spiraling utilities prices led to the ousting of Kurmanbek Bakiev as Kyrgyz president and the formation of a new interim government by opposition parties. An estimated 84 people died and 1,600 were injured.

At a press conference after their meeting, Medvedev and Karimov said they wanted to see strong government and prosperity in Kyrgyzstan.

“First and foremost, we… should take a decision to establish peace and stability in Kyrgyzstan,” said Karimov.

The revolution in Kyrgyzstan has forced Tashkent to re-engage with Moscow, after recent attempts to re-establish ties with the West, dating from October 2008, when the European Union lifted sanctions imposed because of the 2005 violence in Andijan, when government troops shot down hundreds of demonstrators.  

The sanctions and demands for an independent investigation into Andijan left Uzbekistan in international isolation in 2005-08, and it turned to Russia, since that state did not exert pressure on human rights concerns.

The lifting of EU sanctions shifted the equation again, and the Uzbeks gradually distanced themselves from Moscow in favour of rapprochement with the West, with frequent visits by diplomatic and security officials. Tashkent refused to involve itself in plans for a regional rapid-reaction military force, promoted by the Collective Security Treaty Organisation, a Russian-led security bloc, and also withdrew from the Eurasian Economic Community.

However, Farhod Tolipov, a political scientist in Tashkent, says the growing relationship with western states does not necessarily prevent Uzbekistan from building ties with the Kremlin. He believes that as long as Uzbekistan takes Russia’s interests in Central Asia into account, it can seek to promote its own position in that set of relationships.

“We should select the best form of cooperation [for Uzbekistan]. I think the time has come for that,” he said. “Regardless of one’s foreign policy choices, one cannot ignore this great power [Russia].”

Other regional analysts, however, suspect Karimov’s Russian trip reflected anxiety about a number of issues, chief among them Kyrgyzstan.

There are 800,000 ethnic Uzbeks living in southern Kyrgyzstan and their long common border is a source of frictions. Both problems could worsen if Kyrgyzstan becomes unstable. The Uzbek government, which has been fighting to suppress radical Islam in the Fergana valley for many years, fears that extremist ideas could be imported from outside. Last year, it closed part of its border because it alleged a group of militants had infiltrated the Andijan area from Kyrgyzstan.

There have been no official reports about whether Karimov and Medvedev reached concrete decisions on the situation in Kyrgyzstan.

However, in an interview for NBCentral Asia, Andrey Grozin, who heads the Central Asia department at the Moscow-based Institute of CIS Countries, said such decisions had likely been taken behind closed doors, and were the major outcome of the meeting.

For example, he said, they may have discussed whether Russia would assist Uzbekistan if it faced a security threat caused by spillover from the Kyrgyz situation.

“The situation in the region is escalating, and there are clear indications that undesirable events of various kinds will take place this summer or autumn,” said Grozin. “Instability in Kyrgyzstan will leak across its borders to its neighbours, aggravating the situation in the region”.

In short, he said, Uzbekistan’s attempt to engage with Moscow is driven by current geopolitical realities.

According to Kahramon Aliev, an Uzbek political analyst, Moscow and Tashkent have redefined areas of common policy on Central Asia through the prism of the Kyrgyz coup. Their first priority, he said, is to decide what position they will take towards the interim government in Kyrgyzstan, and “whether they are going to support it or not”.

This article was produced as part of IWPR’s News Briefing CentralAsia output, funded by theNational Endowment for Democracy.