Is Turkmenistan Returning to CIS Fold?

President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov has said Turkmenistan will resume cooperation with the Commonwealth of Independent States, CIS. NBCentralAsia observers say Berdymuhammedov is keen to revive economic links with other member states, but it is still too early to say whether Turkmenistan will become a full member of the grouping.



At a cabinet meeting on June 2, it was announced that President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov will attend an informal CIS summit in St Petersburg on June 10.



Several days earlier, Berdymuhammedov said Turkmenistan would continue with its status as an associate member, which under the CIS charter only gives it the right to take part in intergovernmental discussions, and no say on issues such as defence or border agreements.



His predecessor, Saparmurat Niazov, who died suddenly last December, suspended cooperation with the CIS in 1995 after declaring Turkmenistan a neutral state.



He said the union was “an ineffective mechanism for coordination” and relegated Turkmenistan from full to associate membership, only occasionally taking part in the Council of Heads of Government, and not at all in the other nine CIS coordinating bodies.



NBCentralAsia observers say Turkmenistan is now trying to free itself from its 12 years of “voluntary isolation” and resume its economic contacts so as to attract investment and develop its energy resources.



“Ashgabat needs to upgrade its oil and gas machinery, retrain people in revenue-earning sectors of the economy, and overhaul the education system which was destroyed during Turkmenbashi’s rule,” said expert Rustem Safronov.



The Turkmen authorities may have to make concessions if they want back into the CIS, he explains. For example, they would have to relax the visa regulations now imposed on CIS citizens, because business trips to the closed country will become more frequent.



Tajigul Begmedova, head of the Turkmen Helsinki Fund for Human Rights, an émigré group based in Bulgaria, says a return to the CIS does not automatically mean the authorities are about to embark on a radical shift of political direction.



Turkmenistan will continue to behave with “caution and lack of initiative” in its dealings with the CIS, but it may gradually become more involved in cultural, educational and other humanitarian programmes, she says.



“Berdymuhammedov is choosing to take those steps that will least affect the underlying principles of Niazov’s totalitarianism,” said Begmedova. “That’s why he’s still talking about associate membership.”



NBCentralAsia political expert Mars Sariev says Turkmenistan is not about to upgrade its associate status in the CIS, because its vast energy resources allow it to act “pragmatically and in multiple directions”.



It is possible Turkmenistan may join one CIS structure, the Eurasian Economic Community, in the future, “but the economic benefits will have to be greater than the advantages of remaining neutral”, said Sariev.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)