Too Early for Iran to Join Shanghai Group

Although Iran already has observer status in the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, NBCentralAsia analysts argue that full membership is some way off - the current participants, China, Russia and four Central Asian states, are not overly enthusiastic about the idea.



Iranian vice-president Ali Saidlu, was there when prime ministers from the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, SCO, countries met in Dushanbe late last week, and the grouping’s June summit was attended by President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.



NBCentralAsia analysts say Iran is greatly interested in closer ties with the SCO, a grouping which has been growing in importance on the world stage as well as in the region. Many believe it will soon submit a formal application to join, both because it wants to expand its influence in Central Asia and because it would like to enlist the support of Russia and China.



But according to NBCentralAsia’s Tajik analysts, the feeling is not necessarily mutual. What the current SCO states are interested in is the economic dimension, given that Iran is a major investor in Central Asia, particularly Tajikistan. The political fallout that would come if Tehran joined their club is not something they will want to deal with.



The West is already apprehensive as it watches Russia and China gain influence in the region. Iran stands accused by western countries of supporting terrorists, and allowing it to become part of the SCO, an organisation that attaches great importance to combating terrorism, could be viewed as a deliberate step toward open confrontation with the West.



The conclusion drawn by NBCentralAsia analysts is that until Iran sorts out its nuclear problems and resolves its disputes with the West at least to an extent, it is not going to be invited into the Shanghai grouping.



India, Pakistan and Mongolia have similar observer status in the SCO, so if the Iran were to join, they would have to be allowed in, too. But for all the declarations that new members are welcome, NBCentralAsia analysts say that neither Russia nor China has any particular desire to see Pakistan join their grouping.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)