Ten Years On, Tajikistan Still Faces Risks

As Tajiks mark the tenth anniversary of the end of the 1992-97 civil war, NBCentralAsia experts say economic difficulties and rising authoritarianism still threaten the country’s political security.



On June 27, Tajikistan will celebrate Unity Day, marking ten years since the Islamic opposition and the secular government signed a peace deal ending their bloody conflict.



Up to 150,000 people died in the course of the conflict, and around more 700,000 became refugees. Tajikistan also suffered losses estimated at seven billion US dollars, and the economy is still struggling.



Analysts polled by NBCentralAsia say the economy needs to be bolstered and society liberalised if Tajikistan is to secure the peace created in the last decade.



Saifullo Safarov, deputy director of the Tajik president’s Centre for Strategic Studies, says that the peace in Tajikistan is “as stable as possible” thanks to a rise in the level of national awareness. But he warns that stability could still be undermined by poverty, incompetent economic management, drug trafficking, terrorism, the illicit arms trade and human trafficking.



Political scientist Parviz Mullojanov agrees, saying that social and economic problems are becoming more important year by year, and unless basic living standards improve and more effort is made to curb corruption, there is a danger of serious social unrest.



If these issues are not addressed, “the problems may become much more politicised in the next seven years,” he said.



Shokirjon Hakimov, deputy head of the opposition Social Democratic Party, sees political as well as economic risks ahead. Among these he lists an increasingly authoritarian style of government including a personality cult, restricted access to the media for the opposition, pressure on non-government organisations, and the domination of politics by what he calls “corporate and regional interests”.



However, Saifullo Hikmatzoda, head of information and analysis in the Islamic Rebirth Party, which led the opposition side during the civil war, says there is no chance that the country will slide back into conflict.



At the same time, he fears that extremist groups from outside Tajikistan could exploit economic instability and halting political liberalisation to further their own interests.



“Democratic institutions are unfortunately developing very slowly,” said Saifullozoda. “To be more precise, since 2002 or 2003 we’ve seen a a drift towards an authoritarian state,” he said.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)