Tajiks Braced for Energy Crisis

Tajikistan is expecting a worse-than-usual energy crisis this year as it is bogged down in negotiations with Uzbekistan over gas supplies, and its own energy sources – electricity and coal – will not be enough to get the country through the winter.



Local government in the towns recently launched a campaign to persuade people to stock up on coal and firewood ahead of the cold weather. This is being interpreted as a lack of confidence in a continued flow of gas from Uzbekistan, which could be cut if the country imposes the sharp price rise expected in the next few months.



Over the summer, the Tajiks failed to come to terms with Kyrgyzstan on supplying electricity for northern parts of Tajikistan. The negotiations fell through because the price the Tajiks offered was too low.



While Tajikistan’s hydroelectric power stations generate excess energy over the summer months, the country suffers serious power shortages in the winter, and households in most areas generally have only four to six hours of electricity at this time.



The energy problem remains acute, in spite of the large-scale construction of hydroelectric power stations.



Some regions had a limited supply even in summer this year. The energy ministry blamed this on an extremely dry summer and low water levels in the large artificial reservoir at the Nurek dam, which powers a hydroelectric station.



At present there is no shortage of energy, but analysts believe a major crisis could occur this winter. Water levels in the Nurek reservoir are slowly rising as mountain glaciers melt, but due to this summer’s lack of rain, they remain critically low.



Gas supplies from Uzbekistan could save the day, but the planned price increase on energy resources including natural gas could greatly complicate the situation. Tajikistan may be left unable to purchase the same volumes of gas as in previous years.



Uzbekistan has already hinted that it will increase the price it charges Kyrgyzstan from 55 to 100 US dollars per 1,000 cubic metres of gas. A similar price might prove too high for Tajikistan, one of the 20 poorest states in the world. The authorities have therefore decided to use local energy sources.



Many analysts see the call to stock up on coal as an attempt to revive the nation’s coal-mining industry, but they doubt that coal can appreciably help the situation. Tajikistan’s collieries might not be able to meet the higher demand. For example, Shurob, one of the largest coal deposits, used to produce up to one million tons a year, but extraction has fallen to a small fraction of that. In addition, mining equipment is now hopelessly antiquated.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)