A Sultan for Kazakstan?

A prominent Kazak politician has come up with a rather original proposal: replacing the republic with a constitutional monarchy. Observers say such a suggestion can only undercut the authority of President Nursultan Nazarbaev, and many are asking whether the move signals a schism within the presidential family.



Rakhat Aliev, the first deputy minister of foreign affairs who is also the husband of the president’s elder daughter, Dariga Nazarbaeva, caused a minor sensation when he published his vision for political reform in the September 1 edition of the Karavan newspaper.



Aliev takes issue with the republican form of government, arguing that it was forced on Kazakstan during the period of revolutionary communism, and that it has proved incapable of stamping out corruption and contains elements of dictatorship.



In its place, Aliev proposes a shift to a constitutional monarchy, and parliamentary representation based on tribal affiliation.



NBCentralAsia analysts dismiss Aliev’s musings as an eccentric idea that will have no serious consequences in terms of the governmental and parliamentary system. Kazakstan’s political elite is well aware that a constitutional monarchy would do little to root out the social and political problems outlined by Aliev.



However, the significance of Aliev’s article lies in the discussion it has generated. As the pundits debate the merits of a Central Asia sultanate, they are focusing their attention on Nazarbaev, who will have been in power for 22 years when the next elections come up in 2012.



Some media outlets have already drawn parallels between Nazarbaev and life president Saparmurat Niazov of Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijani president Ilhom Aliev, who took over in a dynastic succession from his father, Soviet-era strongman Heidar Aliev.



Analysts say that the inevitable analogies being drawn between the Kazak president and a monarchical system in the wake of Aliev’s article do not favour the president.



Some have suggested that publishing the article was a deliberate act by Aliev, a prominent political figure and successful businessman. He and his wife control the country’s most influential media holding, and Aliev may be seeking to influence public opinion and establish his own point of view in the growing debate about the succession.



The article is one more piece of evidence lending weight to the persistent rumours that Dariga Nazarbaeva, who has political ambitions of her own, has not been seeing eye to eye with her father lately.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)