Russia Likely to Rebuff Exiles

Turkmen civil rights movements have asked the Russian government to use its political influence to persuade President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov to press for democratic freedoms and repatriate exiled dissidents, but NBCentralAsia observers say it is highly unlikely that the Kremlin will intervene in Turkmenistan’s domestic affairs.



Twelve parties and movements made up of Turkmen citizens based abroad asked the Russian government on February 10 to apply its political influence to liberalise Turkmenistan’s media and economy and help political émigrés return to the country.



Exiled representatives of the opposition hoped they would be able to return home and become politically active after the death of former dictator Saparmurat Niazov in December last year.



But the authorities closed Turkmenistan’s borders and refused to let the exiles nominate candidates for the presidential election.



After President Berdymuhammedov officially assumed office on February 14 promising to give Turkmen more freedom, their hopes were raised again.



However, NBCentralAsia experts point out the Kremlin will not jeopardise its economic interests in Turkmenistan’s oil and gas reserves by involving itself in domestic politics.



Vitaly Ponomarev, Director of the Central Asia Human Rights Monitoring Programme at the Moscow-based Memorial Foundation, told NBCentralAsia that “there is no serious interest in the Turkmen opposition” in Russian government circles.



“The Kremlin is still apprehensive that if the opposition people return to Turkmenistan, they will contribute to strengthening western influence in the country,” he said.



NBCentralAsia expert Mars Sariev agrees that Russia will not intervene and notes it was able to retain its influence in Ashgabat after the collapse of the Soviet Union by being unconfrontational.



“If Russia listens to calls from the opposition, it will have a negative impact on its gas agreement with Turkmenistan,” said Sariev. “Such a scenario is out of the question.”



Despite what Russia is seen to do publicly, Sariev is convinced that it will maintain ties with émigrés behind closed doors with an eye to exploiting them in future.



Tajigul Begmedova, who heads the Turkmen Helsinki Fund, an émigré group based in Bulgaria, suggests that Moscow would only seek to help exiles return in the event of Berdymuhammedov turning away from Russia.



A situation that is highly unlikely, adds Begmedova, given that there are already indications that cooperation between Turkmenistan’s new leadership and Russia will be strengthened.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)