Russia Key to Ukrainian-Uzbek Gas Talks

Ukraine has little hope of striking a deal with Tashkent for supplies of Uzbek gas without Moscow sanctioning the deal, conclude NBCentralAsia analysts.



During Prime Minister Shavkat Mirzioyev’s official visit to Kiev on February 19, the Ukraine expressed its desire to significantly increase the share of Uzbek gas in its imports from Central Asia.



Ukrainian prime minister Viktor Yanukovich has announced that he will visit Tashkent in April 2007 and a package of proposals are being prepared for president Islam Karimov to review.



Uzbekistan uses most of the 60 billion cubic metres of natural gas it extracts annually for domestic needs, but nine billion cu m are exported to Russia and five billion to neighbouring Kazakstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan.



According to NBCentralAsia political observer Avez Baburov, Tashkent is ready to strike a deal with Kiev, especially as the Ukraine extradited ten Uzbek refugees last year.



Uzbekistan will come to an agreement “despite the fact that Ukraine’s current leadership came to power through the kind of ‘coloured revolution’ Tashkent is afraid of”, said Baburov.



Uzbek gas is supplied to Ukrainian consumers through Russian gas giant Gazprom. The Ukraine currently imports two billion cu m of Uzbek gas per year.



Political scientist Davron Sharipov said that whatever agreement the two countries come to, it will be Russia who ultimately decides.



“If the Kremlin agrees to increase gas exports to the Ukraine, they will be increased; if it disagrees, the Uzbek and Ukrainian leaders can visit one another every month, but it won’t bring results,” said Sharipov.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)