Renewed Focus on US Base in Kyrgyzstan

There have been sporadic rumblings of hostility to the presence of a United States military base in Kyrgyzstan in the past two years, but in recent weeks the discontent has hardened into a mainstream political issue.



There have been moves in parliament to remove the base, although the government remains in favour of keeping it. Some commentators believe that as well as a groundswell of popular opposition to the US base, Kyrgyzstan is also coming under pressure from larger regional neighbours who would like to see the American military leave Central Asia.



On June 2, about 50 people from various political parties and NGOs of Kyrgyzstan held a protest outside the US embassy building in the capital Bishek. Waving banners bearing messages such as “Yankee Ketsin” – “Yankee Go Home” - the protesters demanded a review of the terms under which the Americans use the Ganci air base, located at the Manas international civil airport just outside Bishkek, and a deadline for its closure.



They also asked the authorities to draft legislation covering the status of foreign military and civilian personnel stationed in Kyrgyzstan.



At the invitation of the then president Askar Akaev, the US-led coalition carrying out operations in Afghanistan set up the Ganci base in late 2001, after the September 11 attacks on the US.



LOCAL CONCERNS



The protests reflect rising concern about the Ganci base in the wake of the death of Alexander Ivanov, a petrol tanker driver at the base who was shot dead by a US serviceman in December. Under the 2001 agreement on the base, the US military are not subject to Kyrgyz jurisdiction, an issue which generated considerable anger when the US serviceman concerned was posted away from Kyrgyzstan instead of facing prosecution, as some had hoped.



Another issue focused on by opponents of the US presence is that the 50,000 US dollars offered as compensation to Ivanov’s widow is inadequate.



The demonstrators also raised longer-standing allegations that people living near the base have suffered health problems because of US planes dumping surplus fuel before landing. Protesters called for an environmental study of the area within a 50 kilometre radius of the Ganci base.



MEMBERS OF PARLIAMENT JOIN THE FRAY



The latest protests followed a resolution which five parliamentary committees passed on May 23 calling for the US military to withdraw from Kyrgyzstan.



“Kyrgyzstan is showing that it is incapable of taking action on Alexander Ivanov’s death,” parliamentarian Rashid Tagaev told IWPR. “We are important people… yet we can’t do anything about an American soldier who shot one of our fellow citizens.”



An additional concern raised by the deputies was a suggestion that the Ganci air base might be used as a launchpad for operations against Iran in the event of a conflict. They felt this would present a direct and unwarranted threat to Kyrgyzstan’s own security.



Parliamentarian Iskhak Masaliev, who is co-chairman of the Communist Party of Kyrgyzstan, fears that the country could be dragged unwillingly into larger global conflicts.



“There should not be a single [foreign] military base in Kyrgyzstan. This is a real threat to our country. Because of the foreign military base on our territory, other nations may automatically regard Kyrgyzstan as their enemy,” he said. “Sooner or later, unless the airbase is removed, we will be dragged into conflicts between NATO forces and eastern countries.”



However, Masaliev accepts that a motion to end the US presence is unlikely to be supported by a majority of his fellow members of parliament. In his view, their reluctance to act stems from the significant revenue the Kyrgyz state earns from the rent paid by the US government.



COULD KYRGYZ BASE BE USED TO ATTACK IRAN?



Jamila Abdrakhmanova is another Kyrgyz politician opposed to the base both because of the potential risks to civilians living around it and because it could make Kyrgyzstan a player in the troubled world of Middle Eastern politics, at a time when it could use investment from wealth Arab states.



“If bombing attacks are launched on Iran or other countries from the airbase, it will undoubtedly affect the security of our country. We should not forget that the policies of Kyrgyzstan are those of a small country that is forced to manoeuvre between the superpowers,” she said.



Abdrakhmanova continued, “If threats do arise on our borders, they can be resolved within the framework of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and the Collective Security Treaty Organisation. In my opinion, these forces are quite sufficient to stop attacks by international terrorists,” she said.



On May 3, US ambassador Marie Yovanovitch rejected as “ridiculous” the rumour that Ganci would be used for an attack on Iran. Speaking on May 25, Kyrgyz prime minister Almazbek Atambayev said that “on no account” would the base be used for such an attack.



OFFICIAL LINE STILL FAVOURS RETAINING BASE



Bolot Shamshiev, an advisor to Kyrgyz president Kurmanbek Bakiev, believes the original contract was flawed and needs to be revised.



“I am in favour of reviewing the agreement, and if there is no longer a need to fight international terrorism in Afghanistan, then Kyrgyzstan does not need this air base,” said Shamshiev.



However, the official position continues to be in favour of keeping the base.



“We believe it makes sense for the [US-led] coalition forces to be stationed in Kyrgyzstan,” said Kanat Tursunkulov, director of the foreign ministry department dealing with western countries.



“The arguments made by those who believe the air base is no longer necessary are wrong. Military operations in Afghanistan are still under way and will continue in the near future.”



Tursunkulov dismissed as “unfounded” suggestions that the base might be used in any US attack on Iran.



“Under the mandate, this base will only be used for Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan. This has been stressed officially by both Kyrgyz and American officials,” he said.



President Bakiev proposed setting a deadline for a US withdrawal almost as soon as he came to power in 2005, but the Kyrgyz leadership backtracked on the issue after a visit from the then secretary of defence, Donald Rumsfeld. In 2006, US-Kyrgyz relations were again strained, but this time the argument seemed to be about how much the Americans should pay in rent and other fees. After prolonged negotiations, Washington agreed to a one-off payment of 150 million dollars in the form of an assistance package, and to pay 15 million dollars per year for the use of the base.



ARE OUTSIDE ACTORS INVOLVED?



Some politicians are questioning the timing and new ferocity of the anti-Ganci campaign.



“The campaign to remove the American air base from Kyrgyzstan is gaining momentum. To the outside observer, these campaigns seem to be manifestations of growing anti-western sentiment,” said Roza Otunbaeva, co-chairperson of the Asaba party and a former foreign minister. “The speed and scale of the campaign are quite astounding – it isn’t often that five parliamentary committees gather to discuss a single issue, especially a foreign policy matter.”



In her view, the public discourse on the US base is marred by “subjectivity and ignorance of the central issues”.



“We are being biased, hasty and short-sighted,” she continued, “and this is a disastrous and irreversible approach where international relations are concerned.”



Analyst Valentin Bogatyrev says that the current wave of anti-American rehtoric raises questions about whether outside actors are involved. He points out that Russia, China and Uzbekistan oppose the US presence, and notes that the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, a regional security grouping to which all these states belong, will hold its next summit in Bishkek in August.



Alisher Mamasaliev, leader of Civic Platform, a non-government group, predicts that the Bishkek meeting will be used to pressure the Kyrgyz leadership to get the Americans out.



“The upcoming SCO summit will look at the advisability of having American armed forces stationed in Kyrgyzstan, and of removing them by the end of 2007,” he said.



Mamasaliev believes Russia, in particular, is working behind the scenes to change the president’s mind.



“Moscow is using all its levers of influence on President Bakiev…. The Chinese, too, may have good reason to hope that the Bishkek summit may be the beginning of the end for western democratic expansion in Central Asia,” he said.



Other commentators note that the latest round of anti-Ganci activity began after a parliamentary delegation led by speaker Marat Sultanov returned from talks in Moscow on May 21.



REGIONAL TROUBLES A GOOD REASON TO RETAIN US BASE



Advocates of a continued US presence say it is precisely because Kyrgyzstan is located in a rough neighbourhood that it needs all the help it can get.



“It isn’t just the US that needs this air base, but the whole of Central Asia and Russia, as there are still problematic complex processes going on in Afghanistan,” said Miroslav Niyazov, formerly Secretary of Kyrgyzstan’s Security Council.



“There need to be negotiations. If the Americans are breaching any of the terms for their presence, then their behaviour should be reviewed and some agreement reached. But I do not believe the existence of this base runs counter to our interests; in general, it is in keeping with the security interests of the entire Central Asian region.”



Topchubek Turgunaliev, who leads the Erkindik party, argues that since Moscow as well as Washington has a military foothold in Kyrgyzstan, it would be unfair to ask one to leave and not the other.



“It is completely wrong to demand only the withdrawal of the Ganci air base. If Kyrgyzstan wants good relations with all countries, then it should demand the withdrawal of both military bases – Russian and American. You can’t establish good relations with one country at the expense of another,” said Turgunaliev.



“Kyrgyzstan receives payment for renting the Ganci air base, which cannot be said of the Russian base in Kant. Why do we grant privileges to one side and infringe the interests of the other?”



SCO MEETING COULD BE WATERSHED



As the SCO summit approaches, the background noise – both from grassroots campaigners and regional governments – looks likely to get louder.



President Bakiyev’s May 23 announcement of a new special commission which will look into the terms of the US-Kyrgyz agreement on Ganci gave little away about whether its remit is contractual details or the whole future of the base. But the fact that such a commission is deemed necessary at all in the wake of last year’s substantial changes to the financial arrangements for Ganci suggest that Bakiev is under pressure from his SCO partners to make some kind of decision about its fate.



Jipara Abdrakhmanova is an IWPR contributor in Bishkek.