Pro-Nazarbaev Party Aspires to Governing Role

Otan, the party of Kazak president Nursultan Nazarbaev, has announced that it plans to form a government if it wins the next parliamentary election, due in 2008. Given that the president continues to make all important decisions, NBCentralAsia political analysts regard Otan’s statement as merely a nod in the direction of parliamentary democracy.



Otan’s chairman Bakytzhan Zhumagulov made the announcement last week, saying the party would nominate a prime minister.



NBCentralAsia analysts see two ways in which Otan could be seen to form a cabinet. The constitution could be changed to give parliament more of a say in the process, for example the right to nominate ministers, with final approval still resting with the president. The legislature currently has no role in picking cabinet ministers, who are named by the prime minister.



Another method would obviate the need for constitutional change: as supreme head of Otan, President Nazarbaev, could simply consult his party about ministerial nominations.



In either case, Otan needs to win the election. But few analysts doubt that it will continue to dominate the Majilis, or lower house of parliament. In the last election, held in 2004, Otan won 42 of the 77 seats in the Majilis. This summer, the party merged with another pro-government party, Asar – led by the president’s daughter Dariga Nazarbaeva – and the combined number of party members is now estimated at 700,000.



If a recent proposal by Kazakstan’s State Commission for Democratisation goes through, the election rules will change. At present, 67 members of parliament are elected from single-mandate constituencies, and only 10 seats are awarded on the basis of party lists. The new rules would mean a larger parliament, with half the seats reserved for party lists.



However the election goes, NBCentralAsia analysts predict that Otan’s role in forming a government will be little more than ceremonial. The party is unlikely to get to make up its own mind about candidates when all decisions ultimately have to be agreed by the president’s office.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)