Pro-Moscow Line to Continue
Pro-Moscow Line to Continue
NBCentralAsia experts predict that despite opening up communications with the outside world, Turkmenistan will not make radical changes to its foreign policy and will continue to strengthen ties with Russia.
Immediately after his inauguration ceremony on February 14, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov had at least ten meetings and phone conversations with foreign leaders and representatives of international organisations to convince them that Turkmenistan is preapared to improve relations with them.
Details of his foreign policy plans have not been announced but during an interview with the Russian journal Turkmenistan on February 18, he said that all of the country’s foreign relationships would be based on principles of neutrality, non-alignment, and on bilateral rather than multilateral ties.
Former president Saparmurat Niazov, who died suddenly in December, declared his country neutral, a stance recognised by many international organisations including the United Nations.
Nevertheless, confidential sources tell NBCentralAsia that a new policy is being drafted that would assign Russia the role of “sole strategic foreign policy partner”.
“The authorities believe that Russia alone is in a position to neutralise risks arising out of energy price fluctuations and [possible] political pressure on Turkmenistan – and that it will do so without imposing its will on [Turkmen] foreign and domestic policy,” a source close to the Turkmen government said.
At the same time, local observers say that within the Turkmen government, there are individuals who are dead against the idea of expanding Russia’s influence. They would prefer to focus instead on Turkey, which has close cultural and linguistic similarities with Turkmenistan.
“These people are Niazov-schooled officials and ideologists,” said an Ashgabat-based observer. “They are pressing for a continuation of [Niazov’s] policy of isolationism, where Turkey is given preference in business but gas is sold to anyone who wants to buy it.”
Mars Sariev, an NBCentralAsia expert on Turkmenistan, no one can really compete with the Kremlin. “When it comes to talking about world-class projects like laying gas pipelines that bypass Russia via Azerbaijan and Turkey, the Turkmen authorities will definitely consult Russia,” said Sariev.
He believes the Berdymuhammedov government is made up of traditionalists who will take an evolutionary approach to development.
NBCentralAsia’s Ashgabat-based observer agreed with this view, describing the new foreign minister Rashid Meredov as a “very cautious adherent of the orthodox Niazov line”, and saying Berdymuhammedov is too inexperienced on diplomatic matters to take bold steps in foreign policy.
According to Vitaly Ponomarev, Central Asian programme director with the Moscow-based Memorial human rights group, the Turkmen authorities may not have decided what strategy to adopt yet.
“In all probability, the new authorities have not yet defined their foreign policy priorities and will avoid any radical changes in the next few months,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
Immediately after his inauguration ceremony on February 14, President Gurbanguly Berdymuhammedov had at least ten meetings and phone conversations with foreign leaders and representatives of international organisations to convince them that Turkmenistan is preapared to improve relations with them.
Details of his foreign policy plans have not been announced but during an interview with the Russian journal Turkmenistan on February 18, he said that all of the country’s foreign relationships would be based on principles of neutrality, non-alignment, and on bilateral rather than multilateral ties.
Former president Saparmurat Niazov, who died suddenly in December, declared his country neutral, a stance recognised by many international organisations including the United Nations.
Nevertheless, confidential sources tell NBCentralAsia that a new policy is being drafted that would assign Russia the role of “sole strategic foreign policy partner”.
“The authorities believe that Russia alone is in a position to neutralise risks arising out of energy price fluctuations and [possible] political pressure on Turkmenistan – and that it will do so without imposing its will on [Turkmen] foreign and domestic policy,” a source close to the Turkmen government said.
At the same time, local observers say that within the Turkmen government, there are individuals who are dead against the idea of expanding Russia’s influence. They would prefer to focus instead on Turkey, which has close cultural and linguistic similarities with Turkmenistan.
“These people are Niazov-schooled officials and ideologists,” said an Ashgabat-based observer. “They are pressing for a continuation of [Niazov’s] policy of isolationism, where Turkey is given preference in business but gas is sold to anyone who wants to buy it.”
Mars Sariev, an NBCentralAsia expert on Turkmenistan, no one can really compete with the Kremlin. “When it comes to talking about world-class projects like laying gas pipelines that bypass Russia via Azerbaijan and Turkey, the Turkmen authorities will definitely consult Russia,” said Sariev.
He believes the Berdymuhammedov government is made up of traditionalists who will take an evolutionary approach to development.
NBCentralAsia’s Ashgabat-based observer agreed with this view, describing the new foreign minister Rashid Meredov as a “very cautious adherent of the orthodox Niazov line”, and saying Berdymuhammedov is too inexperienced on diplomatic matters to take bold steps in foreign policy.
According to Vitaly Ponomarev, Central Asian programme director with the Moscow-based Memorial human rights group, the Turkmen authorities may not have decided what strategy to adopt yet.
“In all probability, the new authorities have not yet defined their foreign policy priorities and will avoid any radical changes in the next few months,” he said.
(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)
