Prime Minister Kulov Likely to Get His Job Back

After regaining the right to appoint a prime minister, President Kurmanbek Bakiev has put forward Felix Kulov, who resigned from the job in December, as his choice to head the government. NBCentralAsia political observers say Kulov is likely to receive parliament’s approval if Bakiev applies a bit of pressure.



On January 16, a day after signing off on a series of constitutional amendments restoring his right to nominate a prime minister, President Kurmanbek Bakiev put Kulov’s name forward to parliament.



Kulov resigned along with his entire cabinet on December 19, saying he wanted to prompt a fresh parliamentary election. This left the legislature in a quandary. According to the revised constitution that was ratified on November 9 following street protests mounted by the opposition, new governments were to be formed by the party that won the largest share of seats. That presupposed that half the seats in parliament would go to political parties under a proportional representation system, in contrast to the sitting parliament which was elected entirely by the first-past-the-post method.



However, the president subsequently proposed constitutional revisions restoring his right to nominate a prime minister for parliamentary approval. The changes went through the legislature on December 30 amid reports that parliament would have to be dissolved as a way out of the impasse.



There is some possibility that Kulov will not get parliament’s backing. According to one member, Askarbek Shadiev, the opposition will not support him. “To be honest, many of the deputies are unhappy with Kulov’s actions. He may not be approved.”



If this happens, Valentin Bogatyrev, vice-president of the Vostok think-tank, foresees three possible scenarios. The most obvious choice would be to appoint a technocrat who has no presidential ambitions, to do the job until a new parliament based on the revised constitution is elected. Another option would be put in a young professional to lead a rejuvenation of the political elite. Finally, if President Bakiev had the grit to do so, he could pick someone from the opposition.



Despite these possibilities, Bogatyrev believes the incumbent has every chance of winning parliamentary approval. Deputies can only turn down a candidate twice.



Tamerlan Ibraimov, head of the Centre for Political and Legal Studies, believes that the lengths to which Bakiev goes to retain Kulov as prime minister will be a good indicator of how much he wants to keep him on side. Kulov is seen as a potential challenger to Bakiev’s presidency.



“The president has effective leverage which he can apply [against parliament] if he so wishes. If Kulov’s nomination is rejected, Bakiev can nominate him again – and ultimately threaten to dissolve parliament,” said Ibraimov.



Member of parliament Bolot Sherniazov agreed with this view, saying Kulov will get the job if Bakiev really wants that to happen. “The remote control for controlling parliament is in the president’s hands. If he needs Kulov, he’ll get him approved. If he doesn’t, Kulov will be rejected,” he said.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)