Politicians Predict Further Protests

A poll of political party leaders in Kyrgyzstan suggests that the recent constitutional amendments could lead to further demonstrations this spring. Observers say the further revisions to the constitution made at the end of December – seen by many as retrograde – could act as a catalyst for protest, on top of such factors as undue pressure on the opposition, discontent among regional elites with the shape of the new cabinet, and general social tensions.



In a survey which the Bishkek Institute for Strategic Analysis and Forecasting published last week, the consensus view among key political parties was that the amendments passed on December 30 are liable to give rise to further protests.



Aida Alybaeva, director of the Centre for Social Studies, predicts some unrest this spring, but says the protests will not be as large as the ones seen last November. Any public rallies “will not be as massively attended, and will not be supported in the regions”, she said.



Valentin Bogatyrev, vice-president of the Vostok think-tank, sees a number of issues which taken together, are conducive to unrest – the constitution, recent attempts by the authorities to discredit opposition members, and controversy over whether Kyrgyzstan should sign up to the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative, HIPC, a programme established jointly by the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to reduce the debt burden of the world’s poorest countries.



Member of Parliament Kubatbek Baibolov, leader of the opposition Union of Democratic Forces, told NBCentralAsia that protests would be driven by political, social and economic reasons including poverty, unemployment and rising prices. Nor would demonstrations necessarily be organised by the political opposition – there are now strong pressure groups, especially youth organisations, that could take a stand, he said.



Another member of parliament, who spoke on condition of anonymity, told NBCentralAsia that everything now depends on whether Felix Kulov receives the legislature’s approval to resume the post of prime minister.



Kulov resigned along with his entire cabinet on December 19, saying he wanted to prompt a fresh parliamentary election. According to the revised constitution that was ratified on November 9 following street protests mounted by the opposition, new governments were to be formed by the party that won the largest share of seats. However, President Kurmanbek Bakiev went on to propose constitutional revisions restoring his right to nominate a prime minister for approval by parliament. The legislature passed the changes on December 30, amid rumours that it was about to be dissolved.



On January 16, a day after signing off on the constitutional amendments, Bakiev put Kulov’s name forward to parliament.



The parliamentarian interviewed by NBCentralAsia said, “According to the current distribution of top political posts, the prime minister has to come from the north [like Kulov], otherwise there could be inter-regional trouble. In Kyrgyzstan, a balance of regional representation needs to be maintained when people are being appointed to senior positions of state.”



On January 18, parliament rejected Kulov as a candidate for prime minister. Parliament and the presidential administration are now wrangling over whether Bakiev can simply put his favoured choice forward again.



(News Briefing Central Asia draws comment and analysis from a broad range of political observers across the region.)